Copper, Gold Under Pressure, Crude Oil Gains:
European equities recovered today as Italian government bonds advanced, thus pushing down yield on the benchmark 10-year bond below 7 percent. Risk appetite also re-emerged on account of better corporate earnings from Europe, which helped support further upside in equities.
Asian equities on the other hand witnessed downside pressure since the start of the trade on rising European economic concerns. Although we have seen a bounce back in European stocks, we feel that negativity could prevail with the heightening political uncertainty in Italy and Greece.
Spot Gold prices came under pressure today as dollar strength weighed on prices. Also, a revival in European equities led to reduced safe-haven demand. But prices could recover in the later part of the trade, as economic worries remain and any negative news could lead to investors returning to their safe-haven investment.
Silver prices also followed suit, as prices in the international markets slipped 0.2 percent till 4.45pm IST. Apart from negative cues from gold, the white metal also took direction from downside pressure in base metals.
Copper, the leader of the base metals pack, came under pressure today and declined almost 1 percent on the LME and by 0.8 percent on the MCX. Prices came under pressure on the back of a stronger dollar and as long-term economic risks continue. Although Italian bond yields have fallen today, risks associated with the European economy have not been resolved as yet.
Nymex crude oil prices gained by 0.9 percent today and prices are currently hovering around $99.54/bbl till 4:45pm IST. Oil prices are at a three month high on the back of revival in risk sentiments after Italian bond yields declined. However, further upside in prices was restricted because of a stronger dollar.
The US Energy Department (EIA) is scheduled to release it weekly inventories report tonight and crude oil inventories are expected to fall by 1.2 million barrels for the week ending on 11th November 2011.
Gasoline stocks are expected to decline by 0.7 million barrels whereas distillate inventories are also expected to drop by 2.1 million barrels.
Outlook
Gold is expected to trade with a positive bias today as economic risks persist and this could lead to rise in demand for the yellow metal as a safe-haven.
Copper prices will take direction from the risk sentiments in the global financial markets. Any negative development over the European front could lead to further downside pressure on prices.
Expectations of decline in crude oil inventories will support oil prices today but sharp upside will be restricted on account of growing economic worries.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
Base Metals Trade Higher On Firm Dollar Index:
The base metals pack traded lower on the LME on Tuesday with copper being an exception. Strength in the US dollar coupled with weak sentiments in the global markets due to rising tensions with respect to Europe’s debt concerns exerted downside pressure on prices yesterday. However, depreciation in the Indian Rupee cushioned sharp decline on the domestic bourses on Tuesday.
Copper
Copper was the only metal to witness gains in yesterday’s trading session. The red metal rose around 0.4 percent on the LME and by 1.2 percent on the MCX on Tuesday. Positive economic data from the US coupled with expected copper demand from China acted as a supportive factor for prices yesterday.
Copper touched an intra-day high of $7791/tonne and closed at $7753/tonne on Tuesday. On the MCX, the red metal touched an intra-day high of Rs393.9/kg and ended at Rs393.5/kg yesterday. Depreciation in the Indian Rupee led further gains on the domestic platform.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
Crude oil Edges Higher On Positive Us Economic Data:
Nymex crude oil prices gained around 1.3 percent on Tuesday on the back of favorable economic data from the US. However, further gains were capped due to unexpected rise in US crude oil inventories and a stronger dollar.
Oil prices closed at $99.4/bbl after touching an intra-day high of $99.84/bbl. On the MCX, oil prices increased by more than 2 percent on account of Rupee depreciation and closed at Rs.5033/bbl after touching an intra-day high of Rs.5045/bbl on Tuesday.
API Inventories Data
As per the American Petroleum Institute (API) report, crude oil inventories rose by 1.3 million barrels for the week ending on 4th November 2011. Gasoline inventories declined by 2.9 million barrels and distillate inventories also dropped by 2.6 million barrels.
EIA Forecast
The US Energy Department (EIA) is scheduled to release its weekly inventories report today and crude oil inventory is expected to decline by 1.2 million barrels for the week ending on 4th November 2011. Gasoline stocks are expected to drop by 0.7 million barrels whereas distillate inventories are also expected to fall by 2.1 million barrels.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
Precious Metals Slump On Selling Pressure:
Gold prices declined upto 1.2 percent in yesterday’s trade as uncertainty in the global markets led to selling pressure.
Additionally, a stronger dollar also exerted pressure on the yellow metal prices. But, gold recovered from its losses in the later part of the trading session and ended on a flat note at $1780/oz on Tuesday.
On the back of depreciation in the Indian Rupee, MCX Gold December contract rose around 0.8 percent on Tuesday. It hit an all-time high of Rs29,212/10 gms and closed its trading session at Rs29,171/10 gms
Silver
Silver prices gained around by 0.8 percent on Tuesday and touched an intra-day high of $34.78/oz. However, a stronger dollar capped further gains in the white metal prices yesterday.
Silver ended its trading session at the level of $34.5/oz on Tuesday. On the MCX, Silver December contract rose 1.3 percent and touched an intra-day high of Rs58,338/kg yesterday.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
Base Metals Edge Lower On Us Economic Data:
Each of the base metals though traded lower on yesterday but then losses were meager and finally ended with a minute change from its previous day’s trading session. Despite economic data from US released to be better than previous figures; had no major impact on the metal sector.
In fact US equities were seen trading higher as well however there was no much impact on metals price trend. Today morning metals at LME during Asian hours are seen trading mixed, especially copper has again retreated from its intraday high while other metals are seen trading flat.
Currently, Asian equities are seen trading lower may be pressuring on metals trend. The metal prices at Shanghai are also seen trading lower. Despite US equities ended lower yesterday, Asian are struggling today as signs of rising borrowing cost were affecting AAA- rated France stirred fears that even core euro zone members may not escape contagion from the region’s debt crisis.
The euro currency is seen trading lower at $1.3463 down by 0.63 from its previous close. Subsequently, market is expected to remain sluggish. Looking at the economic data, Euro zone CPI is expected and that is likely to be lower than the previous month and then data releases from US are expected to be better.
So, looking at the economic releases we believe metal sector may initially trade lower however; losses may get floored during US Session.
Overall, we expect markets to stay steady with a little selling bias. Meanwhile, oil is also struggling below $100 and any correction on the lower side should pull metals to trade lower as well. Indian rupee depreciations should not allow metals to trade much lower.
Aluminium
Aluminium prices ended lower on LME by 1.99 per cent while at MCX losses were limited due to rupee depreciation.
The cancelled ratios are continuously declining suggesting short term demand is still poor for this commodity.
The lower metal price is keeping most of the metal producer under loss and the demand looks sluggish in the near term.
Copper
Copper prices also traded lower along with other metal sector however, losses were restricted to only 0.97 per cent while at MCX copper ended with a positive note.
The cancelled warrants are also lower for copper suggesting short term demand is still poor for all metals owing economic concerns.
Lead
Lead was the top looser among the base metal pack as it ended with loss of 2.38 percent on LME while in Indian markets losses were limited to - 0.15 percent.
Marginally lead cancelled warrants are better than other metal which is hovering above 4 per cent. However, prices are loosing along with other metal sector.
Nickel
Short term trend looks still bearish for this commodity as continuously cancelled warrant ratios are declining.
On the fundamental front, Japan’s largest producer of the metal indicated that the global nickel surplus might increase to 54,000 tonnes in 2012 to the highest level in four years.
Zinc
Although this metal is moving along with other metal complex but the trend looks less bearish.
Cancelled warrant ratio is slowly drifting lower indicating slower pace of decline in stocks or even build-up might be witnessed.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
NCDEX Wheat Trades Up On Firm Domestic Demand:
Wheat futures traded positive on Tuesday. Regular demand for the commodity across the physical markets supported the prices to trade higher.
Traders took advantage of earlier losses and went for buying at lower levels which supported the gains.
Decline in government stocks during the starting of this month to 29.67 million tons against 31.43 million tons (as on October 1, 2011) supported the futures to end the day in green.
Prices across the physical markets gained form Rs.1205 to Rs.1210 per quintal.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
NCDEX Maize Ends Higher On Fresh Arrivals:
Maize futures closed on a positive note after a downside opening on Tuesday. Weak demand for maize along with fresh arrival season for the commodity in Nizamabad and Davangere markets supported the prices to decline.
Prices in the Nizamabad physical market were stable at Rs.1050 per quintal. However, demand from the stockiest side for maize in Delhi physical market supported the prices to recover by the end of the day.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
NCDEX Guar Seed Rises On Short Covering:
Guar seed and gum futures traded positive on Tuesday on continued short covering.
Though the arrivals had increased by 10,000 bags (1 bag=100kg) to 90,000 bags the arrivals were lower as compared to last weeks 1 lakh bags which supported the prices to trade higher.
Traders took advantage of losses during last week and continued buying at lower price levels which supported the gains. Prices across the physical markets gained from Rs.4180 to Rs.4400 per quintal.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
NCDEX Chana Edges Higher On Limited Stocks:
Chana futures traded positive on Tuesday. Regular demand across the markets along with lean season for arrivals supported the prices to trade higher.
Declining stock positions added to the supply concerns which supported the gains. Prices across the physical markets had gained by Rs.10 as they traded at Rs.3510 per quintal.
Gains were limited owing to good sowing progress of chana during last week as crop acreage under pulses as on 11th November 2011 has been higher at 45.07 lakh ha as compared to 36.86 lakh ha during last year same period.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
MCX Cardamom Edges Lower On Peak Arrivals:
Cardamom prices resumed the down trend on fresh selling on Tuesday.
Increased arrivals at spot auction also pulled down the prices and on cues from spot futures ended in red.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
NCDEX Chilli Weakens On Fresh Selling:
Chilli prices continued the bearish trend on fresh selling in far month contract.
Rising arrivals at spot market of Guntur along with increasing Rabi season acreage in AP pressurized the prices.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
India Jeera Tumbles On Higher Arrivals:
Jeera futures continued the recovery on extended short covering on Tuesday.
Futures remained very subdued during opening hours, however, later on traded up.
On contrary, trend at spot market remained subdued due to higher arrivals.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
NCDEX Turmeric Recovers On Short Covering:
Turmeric prices continued the recovery on short covering on previous losses.
However, current contract continued the uptrend. Reports of decline in arrivals across the spot market supported the prices.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
NCDEX Pepper Tumbles On Profit Booking:
Pepper prices continued the volatility on huge speculative activities.
Futures started the day on lower note however, later on prices took smart recovery on short covering.
Overall movement remained down side biased and futures resumed down side towards the closing and ended in red.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
India Soy Complex Edges Higher On Global Cues:
Soybean prices gained through out the day and made high of 2255 while positive trend did not sustain and prices declined towards closing.
Spot prices surged by around '5-10/quintal in Indian markets with millers and crushers buying actively. CBOT prices closed higher for third consecutive day as china government releases buying of 600000 metric tons to fulfil the reserves.
Expectations of revival in demand from china as La Nina weather is returning in Brazil and Argentina regions.
Soy oil prices gained on Tuesday as prices took cue from overall lower imports of edible oil by around 6%. Palm oil imports have also dropped by around 95 mulling about the tax duties imposed by Indonesia.
Palm oil supplies are disrupted in Malaysia and Indonesia as weather is affecting harvesting activities. Surge in crude oil prices also lent support to soy oil prices at CBOT as margins would be higher in using soy oil for biodiesel production.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
India rm Seed Steady On Weak Sowing:
Mustard seed prices closed unchanged on Wednesday as acreage under mustard is decreased so far in current season.
Sowing prospects are lagging as area available for sowing is lower due to the cotton crop which is not completely harvested.
Further currently there are no rains which could help sowing activities to gain momentum.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
India Turmeric Surges On Rising Spot Demand:
Turmeric Futures continued to add to the gains of the previous day and settled 3.17% higher on Tuesday tracking firmness in the spot prices. Near month futures settled at upper freeze of 4% yesterday.
Demand from the local stockists is supporting prices.
There are some reports of crop damage in A.P due to in adequate rainfall in the month of October. Crop damage would be around 10%.
Production, Arrivals and Exports
Arrivals in Nizamabad stood at 1,000 bags while Erode market witnessed arrivals of 8,000 bags on Tuesday.
Turmeric production for the year 2011-12 is projected at 82 lakh bags (1 bag= 70 kgs) compared to 69 lakh bags in 2010-11. However, area covered under turmeric till 21st September 2011 stood at 0.67 lakh ha 2.9% lower as compared to 0.69 lakh ha in the previous year.
According to Spices Board of India, exports of Turmeric during April 2011- September 2011 stood at 41,500 tonnes as compared to 28,500 tonnes in 2010-11, rise of 46%.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
NCDEX Jeera Settles Higher On Fresh Buying:
Jeera prices extended gains of the previous day and settled 0.84% higher on Tuesday on account of improved buying at support levels.
Spot prices however ended 0.13 lower due to dull trades at the domestic market yesterday.
Sowing of jeera in Rajasthan has gained momentum due to favorable weather condition. Sowing of Jeera has also commenced in some parts of Gujarat but it is on slow pace. Carryover stocks of jeera is expected to be around 9-10 lakh bags as compared to 4-5 lakh bags in the last year.
Prices in the global markets of Indian origin are quoting around $2,800-2,950/tn while Syrian origin is quoting at $3,100-$3,150/tn.
Production, Arrivals and Exports
Unjha markets witnessed arrivals of 3,000 bags, steady as that of previous against offtakes of 3,000 bags on Tuesday.
Production of jeera in Gujarat and Rajasthan in 2011 was around 21 lakh bags and 7-8 lakh bags respectively. (Each bag weighs 55 kgs). (Source: spot market traders).
According to Spices Board of India, exports of Jeera during April 2011- September 2011 stood at 16,000 tonnes as compared to 18,800 tonnes in 2010-11, decline of 15%.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
India Pepper Declines On Profit Booking
Pepper Futures witnessed profit booking at higher levels and settled 0.12% down on Tuesday. Prices in Spot however settled 0.80% higher.
Reports that pepper crop in 2011-12 might fall below last year level of 48,000 tonnes is supporting pepper prices. It expected to be in the range of 42-44 thousand tonnes.
Lower stocks with Vietnam and Indonesia, the major suppliers of pepper will also support prices.
Vietnam has reportedly sold 1.12 lakh tonnes of pepper from January to September 2011 a rise of 14% as compared to previous year. Carryover stocks of pepper with Vietnam till commencement of fresh arrivals in March are projected to be around 15,000 tonnes. (Source: Pepper Trade Board)
Indian parity in the international market was at $7,625 a tonne and remained competitive and was attracting overseas orders while Vietnam 550 gl $7,200/tonne was quoting its pepper at $7,325 per tonne (f.o.b).
Indonesian and Brazil Asta grade is being offered at $7,200 and $7,450/tonne respectively.
Exports from the major countries
According to Spices Board of India, exports of pepper during April 2011- September 2011 stood at 11,250 tonnes as compared to 9,250 tonnes in 2010-11, rise of 22%.
According to International Pepper Community (IPC) exports of black pepper during January to September 2011 export of pepper from six major exporting countries (Brazil, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam and Sri Lanka) was around 188,000 mt, 4% lower from the corresponding period of 195,000 mt. Exports from Brazil, Indonesia, Malaysia and Sri Lanka have decreased, while exports from Vietnam and India increased.
Sharp fall of 38% in pepper exports was witnessed in Indonesia during above period. Exports stood at 26,300 tonnes as compared to 42,082 tonnes in the last year.
Production and Arrivals
Arrivals of pepper in the domestic mandi on Tuesday stood at 24 tonnes as compared to 11 tonnes on Monday. Offtakes on the other hand stood at 28 tonnes.
Production of pepper in India in 2010-11 was 48 thousand tonnes (according to the Spices Board) as compared to 50 thousand tonnes last year. Production is estimated to fall below 45000 tonnes.
According to IPC global output of Pepper for 2011 is expected to decline by 6,500 tonnes to 3.10 lakh tonnes. Vietnam production of the spice is expected to be same as that of previous year to 1.10 lakh tonnes. Pepper production in Brazil stood around 27,000 tonnes in 2010-11 as compared to 35,000 tonnes the previous year.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
India Soybean Rises On Global Cues:
NCDEX November soybean futures traded higher in the morning hours as firm overseas market. However, higher prices could sustain, prices came down an hour before closing the market on account of profit taking and finally managed to close in red. As per 49th All India Convention on Oilseeds, oils
Trade and Industry which was organized by COIIT and hosted by SOPA on November 06, 2001 (Sunday). COIIT estimates, India soybean output in Kharif 2011 at 115 lakh tonnes against 95 lakh tonnes last year.
Soybean futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange fell sharply, tracking a broad decline for commodities, as concerns mounted over the deteriorating economic situation in the euro zone. China's soybean imports in October fell to a seven-month low of 3.81 million tons, down 8% from September, as many domestic crushers delayed shipments, preferring to wait for global prices to fall further amid sluggish domestic sales.
USDA’s monthly S& D report released on Wednesday (November 09, 2011) which shows slightly higher global oilseeds production estimates and higher ending stocks. Global oilseed production for 2011/12 is projected at 454.8 million tons, up 1.3 million tons from last month.
Brazil soybean production is increased 1.5 million tons to 75 million. Total U.S. oilseed production for 2011/12 is projected at 91.2 million tons, down 0.5 million from last month due to lower soybean and cottonseed production. The soybean yield is forecast at 41.3 bushels per acre, down 0.2 bushels from last month.
Mustard Seed
NCDEX November RM Seed futures ended slightly higher due to improved demand from miller as improved demand of edible oils and higher prices of other vegetable oils. Total sowing acreage of RM Seed in Rajasthan increased to 22.58 lakh hectares till November 08, 2011 as compared to 21.50 lakh hectares last year during the same period. Rajasthan is a major producing state of RM Seed in India.
Refine Soy Oil
NCDEX November Refined Soy oil futures traded higher due to firm overseas market as supply concern of palm oil due to heavy rains in Indonesia and Malaysia as well. Better export figures of palm oil during the first 15 days of this month also provided support to the prices.
As per SGS ( a cargo surveyor), Malaysia's palm oil exports during the November 1-15 rose 11.6% from a month earlier to 802,917 metric tons.
India’s Vegetable Oil Imports:
According to Solvent Extractors Association of India, India’s import of vegetable oil in the month of October 2011 was 8.78 lakh tonnes, up 12% as compared to 7.81 lakh tonnes in October 2010.
However, from November 2010 to October 2011 (Oil Marketing year), India’s import of vegetable oil was 83.71 lakh tonnes, fell more than 5% as compared to last edible oil marketing year of 88.23 lakh tonne.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
NCDEX Sugar Trade Up On Domestic Demand:
Sugar futures settled 0.70% higher owing to positive sentiments among market participants regarding exports of sugar for the coming season.
Crushing in Uttar Pradesh has been delayed led by dispute over cane price. This is also supporting sugar prices.
Sugar mills from Kolhapur, Sangli and Satara would pay a first advance of Rs. 2,050 a tonne (last year they paid Rs.2,000), while mills from underdeveloped Vidarbha, Marathwada and Khandesh would pay Rs.1,800 a tonne ( Rs 1,750). And, Rs.1,850 (Rs. 1800) a tonne is to be paid by mills in Pune, Ahmadnagar, Nashik and Solapur. (Source: Business standard) Further, reports that the Empowered Group of ministers may consider fresh Sugar exports on 16th or 17th November is likely to provide support to the prices.
ICE Raw Sugar futures and LIFFE settled 0.24% and 1.59% marginally higher with no clear cues regarding the Euro debt crisis on Tuesday.
Sugar market participants monitored possible buying by Malaysia, the approval of Indian sugar exports, possible delays in No 2 sugar exporter Thailand caused by flooding, and weather in Russia, where frost could damage the beet crop.
Brazil sugar exports down 17% Y-Y in October 2011. Brazil exported 2.55 million tonnes of sugar in the month of October 2011 on account of less cane and sugar output.
Domestic Sugar updates
Cane output in Maharashtra is expected to rise to 82.5 mn tn during 2011-12 from 80.3 mn tn last year, while sugar output is likely to increase about 2.5% to 9.3 mn tn.
Indian Sugarcane production is estimated higher by 0.9% at 342 mn tn for 2011-12 season starting October 1, 2011. ISMA has projected sugar production at 26 million tonnes for 2011-12.
With the opening stocks of 6 mn tn, domestic Sugar supplies are estimated at 32 mn tn against the domestic consumption of around 23 mn tn. Thus there is a wide scope for exports from India.
Global Sugar Updates
According to UNICA, Sugar production in Brazil's center-south in the second half of Oct dipped 23.5 percent from a year ago, as more mills ended crushing the 2011/12 cane crop. Sugar output totaled 1.47 million tonnes, down from 1.92 million tonnes a year earlier. Eighty-nine out of the 310 existing mills in the region had concluded crushing by Nov. 1.
China, the world's largest sugar consumer, has imported 1.6 million tons of sugar in the first 11 months of 2011, with preliminary data for the full year likely to be issued around October 10.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
India Chana Edges Higher On Limited Stocks
Chana Spot prices and futures extended gains of the previous day and settled 1.06% and 1.20% higher due to lower stocks at the domestic coupled with tight supplies in the global markets which are making imports costlier.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture, pulses have been sown in 45.07 lakh hectares as on November 11th 2011 as compared to 36.86 lakh hectares in the last year same period.
The biggest jump has been in the area under gram in Madhya Pradesh (1.29 million hectares, up 80 per cent more than last year) and Rajasthan (833,000 hectares, up 65 per cent). Together, they account for four-fifth of the gram produced in the country. Overall, acreage of all pulses, which also includes lentil and peas apart from gram, in these two states is almost 59 per cent and 65 per cent more than last year. (Source: Business Standard)
Government announced Support price for Rabi crops on 25th October 2011. Chana MSP has been raised by Rs.700/qtl to Rs.2,800/qtl a rise of 38%. Higher base price coupled with remunerative returns earned by the farmers during the last year is likely to boost area under Chana cultivation in 2011-12 seasons.
Pulses Imports
Imports have declined dramatically in the current FY 2011-12 with India's state-owned trading agencies having contracted imports of only 121,660 tn pulses since the beginning of the current financial year till September 12, 2011 compared with 596,700 tn during the same period last year.
Imports have been weak because domestic pulses output in 2010-11 (Jul- Jun) was at an all time high of 18.09 mln tn, up 23percent from a year ago. Also, the Centre has abolished one of the reimbursement schemes for the state-owned importing agencies.
Sowing progress and Production
Indian government is targeting total pulses output of 17 mln tn in the current crop year that started July 2011, down marginally from last year's record production of 18.09 mln tn.
Chana is the main Rabi Pulse crop grown in India, sowing of which is done during October-December, and harvesting begins in January. If the sowing trend is maintained India may witness another bumper crop of Chana in the coming season.
According to the first advance estimates, Kharif Pulses output for 2011- 12 season is down by 9.6% at 6.43 mt. Tur output estimates is up by 0.35% while moong & Urad is down by 21% & 16% respectively. Kharif Pulses sowing is down by 9% as on 23rd September, 2011. 109.41 lakh ha has been covered against 120.3 lakh ha in the last year.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
NCDEX Guar Seed Soars On Limited Arrivals:
Guar Futures after witnessing correction on the first day of the week bounced back from the support levels and settled at the upper freeze of 4% on Tuesday. Lower arrivals at the domestic are supporting prices.
Arrivals reduced to 60000 bags on Tuesday as compared to 70000-75000 bags on Monday.
Despite of lower output estimates in the current season arrivals are much higher. This is because farmers this season are not holding back their stocks due to record high prices.
Record Average daily arrivals are hovering around 90 thousand to 1 lakh bags compared to 55-60 thousand bags in the previous year.
There are reports that higher prices of Guar gum have made users to think for other alternative cheaper sources of gum for Oil exploration.
However, no confirm reports are available as of now.
Production
Guar seed output in Rajasthan is estimated at 11.36 lakh tonnes for 2011-12 season compared to 15.46 lakh tonnes in 2010-11 (Rajasthan Farm Dept).
Production of Guar in Haryana and Gujarat is expected to be 0.2 lakh tonnes and 0.07 lakh tonnes respectively in 2011-12.
However, there are unconfirmed reports that Guar seed output may be lower around 10 lakh tonnes compared to the government target of 11.3 lakh tonne due to excess moisture in the soil during the sowing period.
Exports
According to Agriculture and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority, Indian Guar gum exports for the period April- March 2010-11 surged by 84% and stood at 4,03,007 tonnes as compared to 2,18,473 tonnes during the last year.
Exports of Guar gum from April to June of the current fiscal year 2011-12 stood at 1.45 lakh tn compared to 0.71 lakh tn during the same period last year.
Exporters believe that exports which had crossed over 4 lakh tn last year, may hit this year due on financial crisis in U.S & Europe along with shift in demand.
However the export figures clearly indicates that global crisis has not hit Guar exports as of now in the current season too.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
CBOT Updates:Soybean Surges On Fresh Export Demand:
CHICAGO (Commodity Online):U.S. soybean futures rallied, continuing a three day a correction from prior losses on technical buying and market perception of fresh export demand.
There is speculation of China buying U.S. or South American soybeans, a fundamental feature helping to underpin soybeans' rally.
Traders viewed most of the gains as technical in nature, with buyers encouraged that prices were oversold after traders were unable to press prices through early October lows.
The combination of light new buying on the lows, backed by renewed speculation of China's buying, opened the door for a strong correction in soybean prices, said John Kleist, senior analyst with ebottrading.com.
CBOT Jan soybeans ended up 22 cents, or 1.9%, at $12.00 1/4/bushel.
Courtesy:CME Group
CBOT Updates:Soybean Meal, Soy Oil Edges Higher Global Demand :
CHICAGO (Commodity Online):Soy product futures ended higher, with soyoil futures soaring near a one-month high.
Advances in soyoil were driven by supportive demand outlooks, with crude oil rising near $100 a barrel making margins on biodiesel produced from soyoil more attractive, says Jack Scoville, analyst with Price Futures Group.
Soyoil also drew support from fundamentally bullish inventory data from Monday's NOPA October soy-crush report.
CBOT Dec soyoil ended up 2.7% or 1.38c at 52.60 cents/lb, and Dec soymeal end up $2.20 at $301.40/short ton.
Courtesy:CME Group
European equities recovered today as Italian government bonds advanced, thus pushing down yield on the benchmark 10-year bond below 7 percent. Risk appetite also re-emerged on account of better corporate earnings from Europe, which helped support further upside in equities.
Asian equities on the other hand witnessed downside pressure since the start of the trade on rising European economic concerns. Although we have seen a bounce back in European stocks, we feel that negativity could prevail with the heightening political uncertainty in Italy and Greece.
Spot Gold prices came under pressure today as dollar strength weighed on prices. Also, a revival in European equities led to reduced safe-haven demand. But prices could recover in the later part of the trade, as economic worries remain and any negative news could lead to investors returning to their safe-haven investment.
Silver prices also followed suit, as prices in the international markets slipped 0.2 percent till 4.45pm IST. Apart from negative cues from gold, the white metal also took direction from downside pressure in base metals.
Copper, the leader of the base metals pack, came under pressure today and declined almost 1 percent on the LME and by 0.8 percent on the MCX. Prices came under pressure on the back of a stronger dollar and as long-term economic risks continue. Although Italian bond yields have fallen today, risks associated with the European economy have not been resolved as yet.
Nymex crude oil prices gained by 0.9 percent today and prices are currently hovering around $99.54/bbl till 4:45pm IST. Oil prices are at a three month high on the back of revival in risk sentiments after Italian bond yields declined. However, further upside in prices was restricted because of a stronger dollar.
The US Energy Department (EIA) is scheduled to release it weekly inventories report tonight and crude oil inventories are expected to fall by 1.2 million barrels for the week ending on 11th November 2011.
Gasoline stocks are expected to decline by 0.7 million barrels whereas distillate inventories are also expected to drop by 2.1 million barrels.
Outlook
Gold is expected to trade with a positive bias today as economic risks persist and this could lead to rise in demand for the yellow metal as a safe-haven.
Copper prices will take direction from the risk sentiments in the global financial markets. Any negative development over the European front could lead to further downside pressure on prices.
Expectations of decline in crude oil inventories will support oil prices today but sharp upside will be restricted on account of growing economic worries.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
Base Metals Trade Higher On Firm Dollar Index:
The base metals pack traded lower on the LME on Tuesday with copper being an exception. Strength in the US dollar coupled with weak sentiments in the global markets due to rising tensions with respect to Europe’s debt concerns exerted downside pressure on prices yesterday. However, depreciation in the Indian Rupee cushioned sharp decline on the domestic bourses on Tuesday.
Copper
Copper was the only metal to witness gains in yesterday’s trading session. The red metal rose around 0.4 percent on the LME and by 1.2 percent on the MCX on Tuesday. Positive economic data from the US coupled with expected copper demand from China acted as a supportive factor for prices yesterday.
Copper touched an intra-day high of $7791/tonne and closed at $7753/tonne on Tuesday. On the MCX, the red metal touched an intra-day high of Rs393.9/kg and ended at Rs393.5/kg yesterday. Depreciation in the Indian Rupee led further gains on the domestic platform.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
Crude oil Edges Higher On Positive Us Economic Data:
Nymex crude oil prices gained around 1.3 percent on Tuesday on the back of favorable economic data from the US. However, further gains were capped due to unexpected rise in US crude oil inventories and a stronger dollar.
Oil prices closed at $99.4/bbl after touching an intra-day high of $99.84/bbl. On the MCX, oil prices increased by more than 2 percent on account of Rupee depreciation and closed at Rs.5033/bbl after touching an intra-day high of Rs.5045/bbl on Tuesday.
API Inventories Data
As per the American Petroleum Institute (API) report, crude oil inventories rose by 1.3 million barrels for the week ending on 4th November 2011. Gasoline inventories declined by 2.9 million barrels and distillate inventories also dropped by 2.6 million barrels.
EIA Forecast
The US Energy Department (EIA) is scheduled to release its weekly inventories report today and crude oil inventory is expected to decline by 1.2 million barrels for the week ending on 4th November 2011. Gasoline stocks are expected to drop by 0.7 million barrels whereas distillate inventories are also expected to fall by 2.1 million barrels.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
Precious Metals Slump On Selling Pressure:
Gold prices declined upto 1.2 percent in yesterday’s trade as uncertainty in the global markets led to selling pressure.
Additionally, a stronger dollar also exerted pressure on the yellow metal prices. But, gold recovered from its losses in the later part of the trading session and ended on a flat note at $1780/oz on Tuesday.
On the back of depreciation in the Indian Rupee, MCX Gold December contract rose around 0.8 percent on Tuesday. It hit an all-time high of Rs29,212/10 gms and closed its trading session at Rs29,171/10 gms
Silver
Silver prices gained around by 0.8 percent on Tuesday and touched an intra-day high of $34.78/oz. However, a stronger dollar capped further gains in the white metal prices yesterday.
Silver ended its trading session at the level of $34.5/oz on Tuesday. On the MCX, Silver December contract rose 1.3 percent and touched an intra-day high of Rs58,338/kg yesterday.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
Base Metals Edge Lower On Us Economic Data:
Each of the base metals though traded lower on yesterday but then losses were meager and finally ended with a minute change from its previous day’s trading session. Despite economic data from US released to be better than previous figures; had no major impact on the metal sector.
In fact US equities were seen trading higher as well however there was no much impact on metals price trend. Today morning metals at LME during Asian hours are seen trading mixed, especially copper has again retreated from its intraday high while other metals are seen trading flat.
Currently, Asian equities are seen trading lower may be pressuring on metals trend. The metal prices at Shanghai are also seen trading lower. Despite US equities ended lower yesterday, Asian are struggling today as signs of rising borrowing cost were affecting AAA- rated France stirred fears that even core euro zone members may not escape contagion from the region’s debt crisis.
The euro currency is seen trading lower at $1.3463 down by 0.63 from its previous close. Subsequently, market is expected to remain sluggish. Looking at the economic data, Euro zone CPI is expected and that is likely to be lower than the previous month and then data releases from US are expected to be better.
So, looking at the economic releases we believe metal sector may initially trade lower however; losses may get floored during US Session.
Overall, we expect markets to stay steady with a little selling bias. Meanwhile, oil is also struggling below $100 and any correction on the lower side should pull metals to trade lower as well. Indian rupee depreciations should not allow metals to trade much lower.
Aluminium
Aluminium prices ended lower on LME by 1.99 per cent while at MCX losses were limited due to rupee depreciation.
The cancelled ratios are continuously declining suggesting short term demand is still poor for this commodity.
The lower metal price is keeping most of the metal producer under loss and the demand looks sluggish in the near term.
Copper
Copper prices also traded lower along with other metal sector however, losses were restricted to only 0.97 per cent while at MCX copper ended with a positive note.
The cancelled warrants are also lower for copper suggesting short term demand is still poor for all metals owing economic concerns.
Lead
Lead was the top looser among the base metal pack as it ended with loss of 2.38 percent on LME while in Indian markets losses were limited to - 0.15 percent.
Marginally lead cancelled warrants are better than other metal which is hovering above 4 per cent. However, prices are loosing along with other metal sector.
Nickel
Short term trend looks still bearish for this commodity as continuously cancelled warrant ratios are declining.
On the fundamental front, Japan’s largest producer of the metal indicated that the global nickel surplus might increase to 54,000 tonnes in 2012 to the highest level in four years.
Zinc
Although this metal is moving along with other metal complex but the trend looks less bearish.
Cancelled warrant ratio is slowly drifting lower indicating slower pace of decline in stocks or even build-up might be witnessed.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
NCDEX Wheat Trades Up On Firm Domestic Demand:
Wheat futures traded positive on Tuesday. Regular demand for the commodity across the physical markets supported the prices to trade higher.
Traders took advantage of earlier losses and went for buying at lower levels which supported the gains.
Decline in government stocks during the starting of this month to 29.67 million tons against 31.43 million tons (as on October 1, 2011) supported the futures to end the day in green.
Prices across the physical markets gained form Rs.1205 to Rs.1210 per quintal.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
NCDEX Maize Ends Higher On Fresh Arrivals:
Maize futures closed on a positive note after a downside opening on Tuesday. Weak demand for maize along with fresh arrival season for the commodity in Nizamabad and Davangere markets supported the prices to decline.
Prices in the Nizamabad physical market were stable at Rs.1050 per quintal. However, demand from the stockiest side for maize in Delhi physical market supported the prices to recover by the end of the day.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
NCDEX Guar Seed Rises On Short Covering:
Guar seed and gum futures traded positive on Tuesday on continued short covering.
Though the arrivals had increased by 10,000 bags (1 bag=100kg) to 90,000 bags the arrivals were lower as compared to last weeks 1 lakh bags which supported the prices to trade higher.
Traders took advantage of losses during last week and continued buying at lower price levels which supported the gains. Prices across the physical markets gained from Rs.4180 to Rs.4400 per quintal.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
NCDEX Chana Edges Higher On Limited Stocks:
Chana futures traded positive on Tuesday. Regular demand across the markets along with lean season for arrivals supported the prices to trade higher.
Declining stock positions added to the supply concerns which supported the gains. Prices across the physical markets had gained by Rs.10 as they traded at Rs.3510 per quintal.
Gains were limited owing to good sowing progress of chana during last week as crop acreage under pulses as on 11th November 2011 has been higher at 45.07 lakh ha as compared to 36.86 lakh ha during last year same period.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
MCX Cardamom Edges Lower On Peak Arrivals:
Cardamom prices resumed the down trend on fresh selling on Tuesday.
Increased arrivals at spot auction also pulled down the prices and on cues from spot futures ended in red.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
NCDEX Chilli Weakens On Fresh Selling:
Chilli prices continued the bearish trend on fresh selling in far month contract.
Rising arrivals at spot market of Guntur along with increasing Rabi season acreage in AP pressurized the prices.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
India Jeera Tumbles On Higher Arrivals:
Jeera futures continued the recovery on extended short covering on Tuesday.
Futures remained very subdued during opening hours, however, later on traded up.
On contrary, trend at spot market remained subdued due to higher arrivals.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
NCDEX Turmeric Recovers On Short Covering:
Turmeric prices continued the recovery on short covering on previous losses.
However, current contract continued the uptrend. Reports of decline in arrivals across the spot market supported the prices.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
NCDEX Pepper Tumbles On Profit Booking:
Pepper prices continued the volatility on huge speculative activities.
Futures started the day on lower note however, later on prices took smart recovery on short covering.
Overall movement remained down side biased and futures resumed down side towards the closing and ended in red.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
India Soy Complex Edges Higher On Global Cues:
Soybean prices gained through out the day and made high of 2255 while positive trend did not sustain and prices declined towards closing.
Spot prices surged by around '5-10/quintal in Indian markets with millers and crushers buying actively. CBOT prices closed higher for third consecutive day as china government releases buying of 600000 metric tons to fulfil the reserves.
Expectations of revival in demand from china as La Nina weather is returning in Brazil and Argentina regions.
Soy oil prices gained on Tuesday as prices took cue from overall lower imports of edible oil by around 6%. Palm oil imports have also dropped by around 95 mulling about the tax duties imposed by Indonesia.
Palm oil supplies are disrupted in Malaysia and Indonesia as weather is affecting harvesting activities. Surge in crude oil prices also lent support to soy oil prices at CBOT as margins would be higher in using soy oil for biodiesel production.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
India rm Seed Steady On Weak Sowing:
Mustard seed prices closed unchanged on Wednesday as acreage under mustard is decreased so far in current season.
Sowing prospects are lagging as area available for sowing is lower due to the cotton crop which is not completely harvested.
Further currently there are no rains which could help sowing activities to gain momentum.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
India Turmeric Surges On Rising Spot Demand:
Turmeric Futures continued to add to the gains of the previous day and settled 3.17% higher on Tuesday tracking firmness in the spot prices. Near month futures settled at upper freeze of 4% yesterday.
Demand from the local stockists is supporting prices.
There are some reports of crop damage in A.P due to in adequate rainfall in the month of October. Crop damage would be around 10%.
Production, Arrivals and Exports
Arrivals in Nizamabad stood at 1,000 bags while Erode market witnessed arrivals of 8,000 bags on Tuesday.
Turmeric production for the year 2011-12 is projected at 82 lakh bags (1 bag= 70 kgs) compared to 69 lakh bags in 2010-11. However, area covered under turmeric till 21st September 2011 stood at 0.67 lakh ha 2.9% lower as compared to 0.69 lakh ha in the previous year.
According to Spices Board of India, exports of Turmeric during April 2011- September 2011 stood at 41,500 tonnes as compared to 28,500 tonnes in 2010-11, rise of 46%.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
NCDEX Jeera Settles Higher On Fresh Buying:
Jeera prices extended gains of the previous day and settled 0.84% higher on Tuesday on account of improved buying at support levels.
Spot prices however ended 0.13 lower due to dull trades at the domestic market yesterday.
Sowing of jeera in Rajasthan has gained momentum due to favorable weather condition. Sowing of Jeera has also commenced in some parts of Gujarat but it is on slow pace. Carryover stocks of jeera is expected to be around 9-10 lakh bags as compared to 4-5 lakh bags in the last year.
Prices in the global markets of Indian origin are quoting around $2,800-2,950/tn while Syrian origin is quoting at $3,100-$3,150/tn.
Production, Arrivals and Exports
Unjha markets witnessed arrivals of 3,000 bags, steady as that of previous against offtakes of 3,000 bags on Tuesday.
Production of jeera in Gujarat and Rajasthan in 2011 was around 21 lakh bags and 7-8 lakh bags respectively. (Each bag weighs 55 kgs). (Source: spot market traders).
According to Spices Board of India, exports of Jeera during April 2011- September 2011 stood at 16,000 tonnes as compared to 18,800 tonnes in 2010-11, decline of 15%.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
India Pepper Declines On Profit Booking
Pepper Futures witnessed profit booking at higher levels and settled 0.12% down on Tuesday. Prices in Spot however settled 0.80% higher.
Reports that pepper crop in 2011-12 might fall below last year level of 48,000 tonnes is supporting pepper prices. It expected to be in the range of 42-44 thousand tonnes.
Lower stocks with Vietnam and Indonesia, the major suppliers of pepper will also support prices.
Vietnam has reportedly sold 1.12 lakh tonnes of pepper from January to September 2011 a rise of 14% as compared to previous year. Carryover stocks of pepper with Vietnam till commencement of fresh arrivals in March are projected to be around 15,000 tonnes. (Source: Pepper Trade Board)
Indian parity in the international market was at $7,625 a tonne and remained competitive and was attracting overseas orders while Vietnam 550 gl $7,200/tonne was quoting its pepper at $7,325 per tonne (f.o.b).
Indonesian and Brazil Asta grade is being offered at $7,200 and $7,450/tonne respectively.
Exports from the major countries
According to Spices Board of India, exports of pepper during April 2011- September 2011 stood at 11,250 tonnes as compared to 9,250 tonnes in 2010-11, rise of 22%.
According to International Pepper Community (IPC) exports of black pepper during January to September 2011 export of pepper from six major exporting countries (Brazil, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam and Sri Lanka) was around 188,000 mt, 4% lower from the corresponding period of 195,000 mt. Exports from Brazil, Indonesia, Malaysia and Sri Lanka have decreased, while exports from Vietnam and India increased.
Sharp fall of 38% in pepper exports was witnessed in Indonesia during above period. Exports stood at 26,300 tonnes as compared to 42,082 tonnes in the last year.
Production and Arrivals
Arrivals of pepper in the domestic mandi on Tuesday stood at 24 tonnes as compared to 11 tonnes on Monday. Offtakes on the other hand stood at 28 tonnes.
Production of pepper in India in 2010-11 was 48 thousand tonnes (according to the Spices Board) as compared to 50 thousand tonnes last year. Production is estimated to fall below 45000 tonnes.
According to IPC global output of Pepper for 2011 is expected to decline by 6,500 tonnes to 3.10 lakh tonnes. Vietnam production of the spice is expected to be same as that of previous year to 1.10 lakh tonnes. Pepper production in Brazil stood around 27,000 tonnes in 2010-11 as compared to 35,000 tonnes the previous year.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
India Soybean Rises On Global Cues:
NCDEX November soybean futures traded higher in the morning hours as firm overseas market. However, higher prices could sustain, prices came down an hour before closing the market on account of profit taking and finally managed to close in red. As per 49th All India Convention on Oilseeds, oils
Trade and Industry which was organized by COIIT and hosted by SOPA on November 06, 2001 (Sunday). COIIT estimates, India soybean output in Kharif 2011 at 115 lakh tonnes against 95 lakh tonnes last year.
Soybean futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange fell sharply, tracking a broad decline for commodities, as concerns mounted over the deteriorating economic situation in the euro zone. China's soybean imports in October fell to a seven-month low of 3.81 million tons, down 8% from September, as many domestic crushers delayed shipments, preferring to wait for global prices to fall further amid sluggish domestic sales.
USDA’s monthly S& D report released on Wednesday (November 09, 2011) which shows slightly higher global oilseeds production estimates and higher ending stocks. Global oilseed production for 2011/12 is projected at 454.8 million tons, up 1.3 million tons from last month.
Brazil soybean production is increased 1.5 million tons to 75 million. Total U.S. oilseed production for 2011/12 is projected at 91.2 million tons, down 0.5 million from last month due to lower soybean and cottonseed production. The soybean yield is forecast at 41.3 bushels per acre, down 0.2 bushels from last month.
Mustard Seed
NCDEX November RM Seed futures ended slightly higher due to improved demand from miller as improved demand of edible oils and higher prices of other vegetable oils. Total sowing acreage of RM Seed in Rajasthan increased to 22.58 lakh hectares till November 08, 2011 as compared to 21.50 lakh hectares last year during the same period. Rajasthan is a major producing state of RM Seed in India.
Refine Soy Oil
NCDEX November Refined Soy oil futures traded higher due to firm overseas market as supply concern of palm oil due to heavy rains in Indonesia and Malaysia as well. Better export figures of palm oil during the first 15 days of this month also provided support to the prices.
As per SGS ( a cargo surveyor), Malaysia's palm oil exports during the November 1-15 rose 11.6% from a month earlier to 802,917 metric tons.
India’s Vegetable Oil Imports:
According to Solvent Extractors Association of India, India’s import of vegetable oil in the month of October 2011 was 8.78 lakh tonnes, up 12% as compared to 7.81 lakh tonnes in October 2010.
However, from November 2010 to October 2011 (Oil Marketing year), India’s import of vegetable oil was 83.71 lakh tonnes, fell more than 5% as compared to last edible oil marketing year of 88.23 lakh tonne.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
NCDEX Sugar Trade Up On Domestic Demand:
Sugar futures settled 0.70% higher owing to positive sentiments among market participants regarding exports of sugar for the coming season.
Crushing in Uttar Pradesh has been delayed led by dispute over cane price. This is also supporting sugar prices.
Sugar mills from Kolhapur, Sangli and Satara would pay a first advance of Rs. 2,050 a tonne (last year they paid Rs.2,000), while mills from underdeveloped Vidarbha, Marathwada and Khandesh would pay Rs.1,800 a tonne ( Rs 1,750). And, Rs.1,850 (Rs. 1800) a tonne is to be paid by mills in Pune, Ahmadnagar, Nashik and Solapur. (Source: Business standard) Further, reports that the Empowered Group of ministers may consider fresh Sugar exports on 16th or 17th November is likely to provide support to the prices.
ICE Raw Sugar futures and LIFFE settled 0.24% and 1.59% marginally higher with no clear cues regarding the Euro debt crisis on Tuesday.
Sugar market participants monitored possible buying by Malaysia, the approval of Indian sugar exports, possible delays in No 2 sugar exporter Thailand caused by flooding, and weather in Russia, where frost could damage the beet crop.
Brazil sugar exports down 17% Y-Y in October 2011. Brazil exported 2.55 million tonnes of sugar in the month of October 2011 on account of less cane and sugar output.
Domestic Sugar updates
Cane output in Maharashtra is expected to rise to 82.5 mn tn during 2011-12 from 80.3 mn tn last year, while sugar output is likely to increase about 2.5% to 9.3 mn tn.
Indian Sugarcane production is estimated higher by 0.9% at 342 mn tn for 2011-12 season starting October 1, 2011. ISMA has projected sugar production at 26 million tonnes for 2011-12.
With the opening stocks of 6 mn tn, domestic Sugar supplies are estimated at 32 mn tn against the domestic consumption of around 23 mn tn. Thus there is a wide scope for exports from India.
Global Sugar Updates
According to UNICA, Sugar production in Brazil's center-south in the second half of Oct dipped 23.5 percent from a year ago, as more mills ended crushing the 2011/12 cane crop. Sugar output totaled 1.47 million tonnes, down from 1.92 million tonnes a year earlier. Eighty-nine out of the 310 existing mills in the region had concluded crushing by Nov. 1.
China, the world's largest sugar consumer, has imported 1.6 million tons of sugar in the first 11 months of 2011, with preliminary data for the full year likely to be issued around October 10.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
India Chana Edges Higher On Limited Stocks
Chana Spot prices and futures extended gains of the previous day and settled 1.06% and 1.20% higher due to lower stocks at the domestic coupled with tight supplies in the global markets which are making imports costlier.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture, pulses have been sown in 45.07 lakh hectares as on November 11th 2011 as compared to 36.86 lakh hectares in the last year same period.
The biggest jump has been in the area under gram in Madhya Pradesh (1.29 million hectares, up 80 per cent more than last year) and Rajasthan (833,000 hectares, up 65 per cent). Together, they account for four-fifth of the gram produced in the country. Overall, acreage of all pulses, which also includes lentil and peas apart from gram, in these two states is almost 59 per cent and 65 per cent more than last year. (Source: Business Standard)
Government announced Support price for Rabi crops on 25th October 2011. Chana MSP has been raised by Rs.700/qtl to Rs.2,800/qtl a rise of 38%. Higher base price coupled with remunerative returns earned by the farmers during the last year is likely to boost area under Chana cultivation in 2011-12 seasons.
Pulses Imports
Imports have declined dramatically in the current FY 2011-12 with India's state-owned trading agencies having contracted imports of only 121,660 tn pulses since the beginning of the current financial year till September 12, 2011 compared with 596,700 tn during the same period last year.
Imports have been weak because domestic pulses output in 2010-11 (Jul- Jun) was at an all time high of 18.09 mln tn, up 23percent from a year ago. Also, the Centre has abolished one of the reimbursement schemes for the state-owned importing agencies.
Sowing progress and Production
Indian government is targeting total pulses output of 17 mln tn in the current crop year that started July 2011, down marginally from last year's record production of 18.09 mln tn.
Chana is the main Rabi Pulse crop grown in India, sowing of which is done during October-December, and harvesting begins in January. If the sowing trend is maintained India may witness another bumper crop of Chana in the coming season.
According to the first advance estimates, Kharif Pulses output for 2011- 12 season is down by 9.6% at 6.43 mt. Tur output estimates is up by 0.35% while moong & Urad is down by 21% & 16% respectively. Kharif Pulses sowing is down by 9% as on 23rd September, 2011. 109.41 lakh ha has been covered against 120.3 lakh ha in the last year.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
NCDEX Guar Seed Soars On Limited Arrivals:
Guar Futures after witnessing correction on the first day of the week bounced back from the support levels and settled at the upper freeze of 4% on Tuesday. Lower arrivals at the domestic are supporting prices.
Arrivals reduced to 60000 bags on Tuesday as compared to 70000-75000 bags on Monday.
Despite of lower output estimates in the current season arrivals are much higher. This is because farmers this season are not holding back their stocks due to record high prices.
Record Average daily arrivals are hovering around 90 thousand to 1 lakh bags compared to 55-60 thousand bags in the previous year.
There are reports that higher prices of Guar gum have made users to think for other alternative cheaper sources of gum for Oil exploration.
However, no confirm reports are available as of now.
Production
Guar seed output in Rajasthan is estimated at 11.36 lakh tonnes for 2011-12 season compared to 15.46 lakh tonnes in 2010-11 (Rajasthan Farm Dept).
Production of Guar in Haryana and Gujarat is expected to be 0.2 lakh tonnes and 0.07 lakh tonnes respectively in 2011-12.
However, there are unconfirmed reports that Guar seed output may be lower around 10 lakh tonnes compared to the government target of 11.3 lakh tonne due to excess moisture in the soil during the sowing period.
Exports
According to Agriculture and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority, Indian Guar gum exports for the period April- March 2010-11 surged by 84% and stood at 4,03,007 tonnes as compared to 2,18,473 tonnes during the last year.
Exports of Guar gum from April to June of the current fiscal year 2011-12 stood at 1.45 lakh tn compared to 0.71 lakh tn during the same period last year.
Exporters believe that exports which had crossed over 4 lakh tn last year, may hit this year due on financial crisis in U.S & Europe along with shift in demand.
However the export figures clearly indicates that global crisis has not hit Guar exports as of now in the current season too.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
CBOT Updates:Soybean Surges On Fresh Export Demand:
CHICAGO (Commodity Online):U.S. soybean futures rallied, continuing a three day a correction from prior losses on technical buying and market perception of fresh export demand.
There is speculation of China buying U.S. or South American soybeans, a fundamental feature helping to underpin soybeans' rally.
Traders viewed most of the gains as technical in nature, with buyers encouraged that prices were oversold after traders were unable to press prices through early October lows.
The combination of light new buying on the lows, backed by renewed speculation of China's buying, opened the door for a strong correction in soybean prices, said John Kleist, senior analyst with ebottrading.com.
CBOT Jan soybeans ended up 22 cents, or 1.9%, at $12.00 1/4/bushel.
Courtesy:CME Group
CBOT Updates:Soybean Meal, Soy Oil Edges Higher Global Demand :
CHICAGO (Commodity Online):Soy product futures ended higher, with soyoil futures soaring near a one-month high.
Advances in soyoil were driven by supportive demand outlooks, with crude oil rising near $100 a barrel making margins on biodiesel produced from soyoil more attractive, says Jack Scoville, analyst with Price Futures Group.
Soyoil also drew support from fundamentally bullish inventory data from Monday's NOPA October soy-crush report.
CBOT Dec soyoil ended up 2.7% or 1.38c at 52.60 cents/lb, and Dec soymeal end up $2.20 at $301.40/short ton.
Courtesy:CME Group