Market Movers ahead
We estimate a rise in UK CPI inflation in April to 2.8% y/y. Despite higher inflation, we still see the Bank of England on hold for a long time and expect wage growth to remain subdued.
We estimate a further increase in euro area consumer confidence and German ZEW expectations. The final release of euro area HICP figures will reveal what drove inflation up in April.
In the US, regional PMIs are set to fall from their current extremely high levels in May, in our view.
In Scandinavia, focus is on the Q1 17 GDP figures for Denmark and Norway.
Global macro and market themes
Evidence of a slowdown in China in 2017 is increasing as PMIs have decreased sharply, commodity prices have lost momentum and financial stress is rising.
China slowing in 2017 points to a weaker global cycle, less tailwind to risk assets, downward pressure on bond yields and headwinds for emerging market assets.
Although euro business cycle indicators have not yet shown the same signs of a peak as in the US and China, we do not think euro area PMIs can continue to decouple from the US and Chinese PMIs.
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