OCTOBER: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks in. The other are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February, Mark TwainThere are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: when he can't afford it and when he can, Mark Twain
Tradition technical analysis, a discipline full of moving averages, stochastics, relative strength, chart patterns, and volume, is largely inconsistent and opinion driven. Bull and bears attempt to enter the trend through interpretation that's as much opinion (art form) as discipline (experience and skill). Successful trading/investing focuses solely on discipline through the study of price, volume, and time. Price, volume, and time define the message of the market.
Alignment of price and volume is the key to defining up and down impulses. US Treasury Bonds (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (NASDAQ:TLT)), largely against the expectations of a bearish majority, entered upside alignment on 8/21. The trade has produce an annualized return of 48% through week ending 9/4. BuS > 0 encourages profit-taking against the 17 previous aligned up impulses that averaged 26 weeks and 29%.