Bull Market Still In Place, But Top Could Be Close

So the market has proven me wrong again. We have broken the old S&P 500 2093 top and now it's sitting at 2110. Because we had such a great Elliott Wave pattern of 5 waves down and currently working on 3 waves up, I really thought the old 2093 top would hold as resistance and thus claim a new "bear" market.

I have to believe we are getting near a top. After all the current bull market is 71 months old and the 3rd longest in history. The other two longest were the dotcom bubble and the 1929 crash.

Instead of thinking about bull and bear markets, I am concentrating on identifying up trends and down trends, using Elliott Wave analysis of patterns and counts. I also like to use a lot of technical analysis to confirm my patterns and counts.

The fact is, that after the old S&P500 top of 2093, we got 5 waves down and we are now working on 3 waves up. What I think is important for traders is that this current up trend fits the Elliott Wave pattern of 3 waves up and my 3 waves up could be just days away from completing a top.

My 3 wave up patterns usually complete after 11 sub waves and I am currently working on sub wave-11. So that means we could see a major reversal back down very soon. Of course we could still go up more sub waves and still equal 3 waves. Example: 13 sub waves of 5x3x5 or 15 sub waves of 5x5x5.

Some other technical indicators that are confirming the current 11 sub waves up, is that we are seeing some rising wedges on major indexes such as the Dow, S&P500, Russell 2000, and the Nasdaq 100. What's important is we are getting to the top of these rising wedges.This is on their daily charts. Also on these same daily charts, we are seeing their full stochastic indicators crossing over. So I am sure that we are getting very close to a top.

What I want to see next is a day of strong down momentum and volume and then we should be starting to process our new wave-1 down. Is it the start of a new bear market? The market will let us know!