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Bonds Bearing Down

Published 01/15/2021, 02:45 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

US bonds have been breaking down for about a year now, and although there will be small bounces along the way, the pattern is fairly clear. The next meaningful resistance is the price gap on TLT at 155.66:

TLT Chart

Looking at the longer-term picture, you can see the long-term channel defining the uptrend. There’s a long, long way to go down, even if it’s merely to connect with the lower bound of this channel once more. The message is: don’t be surprised at markedly higher interest rates in the years ahead.

TLT Chart

Latest comments

So what dies that mean Tim? Should we expect a stock market cirrection ? Seemingly that’s not gonna happen. Where’s the disconnect ?
Yes, bonds are pointing lower, and the correction in SPX proved rather shallow - just like I called it to be.
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