Please try another search
Bitcoin's rally certainly surprised me. In my last article from a month ago, I was looking for a top around $16,150+/-150. However, BTC reached as high as $19912 this recent Tuesday, Dec. 1. Upside surprises and downside disappointments are the hallmarks of a bull market. So that is a good thing (if one is long). As such, I was forced to adapt my Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) count: see Figure 1 below.
Figure 1. Daily Bitcoin candlestick chart, with detailed EWP count
The recent dip to $16,270 counts, in my humble opinion, best as a (grey) minute wave-a of a (green) minor wave-4. The subsequent rally was wave-b, and now -ideally- (grey) wave-c is under way back to $15,675-16,500 target zone to complete an (irregular) flat 4th wave. Please see here for a description of a flat correction. If BTC does not breakout, and close above $19,680, that is my preferred path forward. A break and close below $18,175 from current price levels will add further weight to the evidence for the flat 4th wave scenario. Once this correction, which is then technically and only digestion of the recent gains, is over, BTC should rally to $21,700-23,700 to complete the green wave-5 of (red) intermediate wave-iii/c, etc.: the grey arrows highlight this path.
The alternate scenario is a direct rally to the $21,700-23,700 target zone, blue arrow, but that requires, as said, a close above $19680. Given all the negative divergences on the technical indicators (red dotted arrows), e.g., the MACD has not given a buy signal for the recent rally, I find the upside scenario less likely.
Overall, the next “dip” in BTC to ideally $15,675-16,500 can be a great buying opportunity, with the appropriate stops in place, i.e., a close below $15,675 would be a severe warning upside may not come, with a 2nd red light at the $15140 level. For now, there is some uncertainty about the short-term direction (days), but with the breakdown and breakout levels mentioned, trading it should not be difficult. Longer-term, the rally in BTC has, in my opinion, still has a long way to go, if downside/support levels hold.
Global markets continue to face headwinds as developed economies grapple with persistent inflation, remaining above the desired 2% level. Notably, Germany, the economic powerhouse...
Today there is a lot of focus on the US data, especially the US ADP number, which is expected to print a solid reading, which would mean that the US dollar index may pick up more...
Bitcoin and Ethereum have not shown a strong correlation with the Nasdaq 100 or gold this month. Bitcoin continues to consolidate around $27K but remains in a longer-term bullish...
Are you sure you want to block %USER_NAME%?
By doing so, you and %USER_NAME% will not be able to see any of each other's Investing.com's posts.
%USER_NAME% was successfully added to your Block List
Since you’ve just unblocked this person, you must wait 48 hours before renewing the block.
I feel that this comment is:
Thank You!
Your report has been sent to our moderators for review
Add a Comment
We encourage you to use comments to engage with other users, share your perspective and ask questions of authors and each other. However, in order to maintain the high level of discourse we’ve all come to value and expect, please keep the following criteria in mind:
Enrich the conversation, don’t trash it.
Stay focused and on track. Only post material that’s relevant to the topic being discussed.
Be respectful. Even negative opinions can be framed positively and diplomatically. Avoid profanity, slander or personal attacks directed at an author or another user. Racism, sexism and other forms of discrimination will not be tolerated.
Perpetrators of spam or abuse will be deleted from the site and prohibited from future registration at Investing.com’s discretion.