BTC/USD continued to trade in a consolidative manner, staying slightly below the 32845 zone, marked by the low of Jan. 24 and below the downside resistance line taken from the high of Mar. 28. On May 5, the crypto fell below the lower end of an upside channel. It continued to respect the aforementioned downside line, which, in our view, means that the outlook is cautiously negative.
Despite the consolidation, we see decent chances for the bears to retake charge soon and aim for another test at the low of May 12, near the 25625 zone. A break lower would confirm a forthcoming lower low on the daily and weekly charts and could see scope for extensions towards the low of Dec. 21, 2020, at around 21710, or the inside swing high of Dec. 1, 2020 near 19755. If neither barrier can halt the slide, we may see the bears pushing towards the low of Nov. 26, 2020, at around 16135.
Shifting attention to our short-term oscillators, we see that the RSI turned down after hitting resistance at 50, while the MACD, although above its trigger line, lies within its negative territory and shows signs of topping. Both indicators detect downside speed and somewhat support the notion for the bears to retake charge at some point soon.
To know whether the bulls have gained complete control, we would like to see a strong advance and then a break above the 52045 zone, marked by the high of Dec. 27. This will take the crypto above the upper bound of the pre-mentioned upside channel and could initially see scope for extensions towards the 57575 or 59315 zones, marked by the highs of Dec. 3 and Nov. 30, respectively.
If neither barrier holds, the bulls may get encouraged to climb towards the high of Nov. 15, at 66275, or the high of Nov. 10, at around 68835.
