In my last update (see here), I showed that the S&P 500’s immediate bullish upside path had been denied and, with that, two primary possibilities were forming:
- Rallying the index above last week’s low (SPX 4120) will lock in an a-b-c pattern, as already shared in early August (see here). Then we should expect [a] c-wave to ideally around SPX 4550.
- The current price action is a (rare) expanding leading diagonal. It means the SPX should now be in (grey) minute wave-iv, followed by wave-v to complete (green) minor wave-1. Minor waves 2, 3, 4, and 5 should follow, as shown in Figure 1 below.
I concluded by stating:
“If the bulls can push the SPX back above $4120 …, then EWP option [1] is operable. If they cannot, and the bears manage an impulse lower from the August high, the[n] path [in option] 2 becomes preferred.”
Figure 1. S&P 500 daily chart with detailed EWP count and several technical indicators
The index topped that same day right inside the ideal (grey) W-iv target zone (SPX 4105+/-15) at SPX4018 and dropped the next trading day to SPX 3887, which was a bit short of the ideal SPX 3800+/-50 target zone for the (grey) W-v.
Nothing says markets must always follow perfect, standard Fibonacci-based Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) patterns. Besides, once the (grey) W-v would complete (green) W-1, I was looking for a bounce back to around SPX4050 for green W-2, followed by a sharp W-3 to the downside.
Yesterday, the index took a horrible sharp turn lower. Thus, it appears most likely that option 2, as now shown in more detail in figure 1 above, is in play.
A break below the early September low of SPX3886 then opens the door for the impulse pattern as shown with an ideal target zone of SPX 3515-3400 for (green) W-3/c, then a potential W-4 rally back to ideally SPX3675-3785 followed by the last drop to ideally SPX 3230-3330 to complete W-v od W-c of W-A.
There’s a slight nuance to this overall bigger picture W-A, but the anticipated path and downside targets are the same. Hence, I will share it once we get there.