If you love predicting the future market movements, then you’d probably be excited about the Augur (REP) surge on Sunday. Augur and its native token, REP, surged over 35% on Sunday before erasing almost half of the gains. But still, by the end of the trading day, it was up 17% against the USD. We’ve seen these types of spikes a lot with Augur, which is interesting considering the nature of their blockchain philosophy. Here's a little bit about them.
Augur REP Overview
Augur is a decentralized prediction market which aims to forecast the outcome of an event based on a scientific phenomenon called the “wisdom of the crowd.” With this method, information collected from the crowd is averaged into the most realistic possibility and therefore the most probable outcome. You’ll get rewarded for correct predictions. And penalized by the network for incorrect reporting. By doing so, Augur incentivizes correct predictions in the era where fake-news is a major issue.
The idea behind this is to get more accurate predictions by large groups of people, rather than a small team of experts who may be able to manipulate the news.
What Could Go Wrong?
While this sounds exciting, one problem Augur users must keep in mind is that because of the social media, conspiracies and false reports can get in the hands of millions of people in a matter of minutes, and therefore the wisdom of the crowd may not be as accurate as it once was perceived. Heck, at Invest Diva, we use a trading method which encourages going against the crowd.
Augur is built on the Ethereum platform and has enjoyed high trading volume in the past week, ranking number 37 on coinmarketcap.
REP/USD Technical Analysis
Despite Sunday’s spike, REP/USD is still hanging around the key support level of $27.57, below the daily Ichimoku cloud. 
Sunday's spike had the pair test both the lower band of the daily Ichimoku cloud as well as the 23% Fibonacci. However, for the market sentiment to turn bullish long-term, we need a break above the cloud. Perhaps, Augur's market prediction could do a better job at predicting its own market price :)
As the 4th point of the IDDA technique, you must calculate your risk tolerance before deciding on the investment strategy that is suitable for your portfolio.
Don't forget to complete your risk management due-diligence before developing your investment strategy.
*This article was originally published here.