AUD/USD
BIAS: While 0.8830-45 caps, there is risk of the downside resuming
| Resistance: | 0.8830 | 0.8845 | 0.8865 | 0.8890 |
| Support: | 0.8797 | 0.8774 | 0.8756 | 0.8740 |
MAIN ANALYSIS: Following on from the video outlook I have looked more deeply at the 0.8827 - 0.8756 decline and feel there is an argument for it to have been a 3-wave move, albeit very choppy. Thus, if we are seeing an expanded flat correction then the 0.8830-45 area should cap and trigger losses. If so then we should see losses below 0.8756, and down towards the final targets, minimum at 0.8724 but could even run down to the 0.8603 or to the 0.8533 areas.
COUNTER ANALYSIS: An earlier break above 0.8850 would risk a deeper correction to 0.8890-0.8932 (also note 0.8949-75) before the stronger losses develop.
MEDIUM TERM ANALYSIS:
21st January: We'll either see the 0.8830-45 area cap for losses towards the lower 0.8662, and even 0.8603 projections. If there is a break above 0.8850 then the 0.8890-0.8949 area should hold (though there is a higher retracement at 0.8975) for losses but may then stall at the higher projection targets.
Only back above 0.9005 and 0.9085 will turn this higher now.