AUD/USD
The Australian dollar has been able to rest for the last 24 hours or so after falling sharply the previous day down to a three month low near 0.8820. After showing some resilience earlier last week moving to a one week high above 0.9150, the AUD/USD finished out last week turning around sharply and falling heavily down to a then three month low close to 0.89. For the last few days the Australian dollar has done very little trading right around 0.8950 before drifting lower to 0.89. After all of its steady good work several weeks ago in the middle of November which saw the AUD/USD steadily move higher from support at 0.93 back up to a one week high near 0.9450, the AUD/USD has since returned all of those gains and some. After settling around the 0.95 level for over a week earlier last month, the AUD/USD started to drift lower back towards the support at 0.93. Throughout most of October the AUD/USD enjoyed a solid and steady move higher from the support level at 0.93 up to the resistance level at 0.95 and beyond to a high around 0.9760.
Throughout the first half of September the AUD/USD enjoyed a solid run which was punctuated by a strong surge higher sending it to a then three month high just above 0.95. A couple of months ago the AUD/USD had been trying valiantly to stay above the support level at 0.89 as all week it placed downward pressure but was unable to sustain any break lower. At the beginning of August it moved very well from three year lows to move back above the key level of 90 cents and beyond to a two week high just above 0.92 to finish out that week. At the end of July the AUD/USD fell very strongly and appeared to resume the medium term down trend as it moved to a new three year low near 0.8850 but it reversed very well and looked poised to continue back towards the longer term resistance level at 0.93. For the most part of the last week, it moved very little and was quite subdued staying above the support level at 0.94.
Throughout July the AUD/USD placed constant pressure on the 0.93 level again as it continued to place buying pressure on that level however the resistance there was able to stand firm. It was during this time it did very well to maintain its price level well above 0.92 as place upward buying pressure on the resistance level at 0.93. Throughout July, the AUD/USD spent most of its time trading between 0.90 and 0.93 threatening to break through either level at multiple stages. The 0.9150 level also became a key level during that time providing both some resistance and more recently support, and this was called upon again a few weeks ago providing some much needed support however it was completely ignored a couple of weeks ago as the AUD/USD fell heavily through it. Considering the speed of its decline throughout several months this year, the second half of this year has seen a significant slowing down and almost some consolidation as it has rested well on the support at 0.90 several times. Throughout April to August, the AUD/USD established a strong medium term down trend with lower peaks and lower troughs, as it has moved from near 1.06 down to near 0.90 in that time.
Over in Australia, on Tuesday the RBA released the minutes from its last policy meeting, and there wasn't much good news as far as the Aussie was concerned. The Bank stated that a lower value for the currency would likely be required to "achieve balanced growth". The RBA continues to try and "talk down" the Australian dollar, which has now shed about 12% of its value in 2013. The minutes noted that the RBA was maintaining interest rates but did not want to close off the possibility of a reduction if this could boost growth. Later in the day, RBA Governor Glenn Stevens reiterated that the Bank wants to see a cheaper Australian dollar. Testifying before a parliamentary committee, Stevens said that an exchange rate "over a dollar or even in the 90s" was not sustainable. He added that the RBA was open to reducing rates if conditions warranted such a move, and the possibility of a rate cut could weigh on the struggling Australian dollar.
AUD/USD Daily Chart" title="AUD/USD Daily Chart" width="551" height="231">
AUD/USD 4 Hourly Chart" title="AUD/USD 4 Hourly Chart" width="551" height="231">
AUD/USD December 19 at 22:15 GMT 0.8860 H: 0.8875 L: 0.8834
AUD/USD Technical Chart" title="AUD/USD Technical Chart" width="551" height="231">
During the early hours of the Asian trading session on Friday, the AUD/USD is trying to edge a little higher up from 0.8850 after finding some support at 0.8830. Despite its strong recovery in September, the Australian dollar has been in a free-fall for a lot of this year. Current range: trading just above 0.8850.
Further levels in both directions:
• Below: 0.8800.
• Above: 0.9160, 0.9500 and 0.9550.
AUD/USD Position Ratios Chart" title="AUD/USD Position Ratios Chart" width="551" height="231">
(Shows the ratio of long vs. short positions held for the AUD/USD among all OANDA clients. The left percentage (blue) shows long positions; the right percentage (orange) shows short positions.)
The long position ratio for the AUD/USD has moved back below 70% as the Australian dollar has fallen below 0.89 for the first time in three months. The trader sentiment remains in favour of long positions.
Economic Releases
- 09:30 UK Current Account (Q3)
- 09:30 UK GDP (Final) (Q3)
- 09:30 UK Index of Services (Oct)
- 09:30 UK Public Borrowing (PSNB ex interventions) (Nov)
- 13:30 CA CPI (Nov)
- 13:30 CA Retail Sales (Oct)
- 13:30 US Core PCE Price Index (3rd Est.) (Q3)
- 13:30 US GDP Annualised (3rd Est.) (Q3)
- 13:30 US GDP Price Index (3rd Est.) (Q3)
- 15:00 EU Flash Consumer Sentiment (Dec)
- JP BoJ MPC - Overnight Rate (Dec)
- US S&P Index Quarterly Review become effective