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Asian Market Update; Japanese Production Up

Published 11/30/2012, 07:03 AM
Updated 01/01/2017, 02:20 AM
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  • Japan Oct industrial production rises for the first time in four months
  • Govt unveils ¥880B fiscal package
  • EUR/JPY at seven-month highs
  • Economic Data
    • (JP) JAPAN NOV MARKIT/JMMA MANUFACTURING PMI: 46.5 V 46.9 PRIOR (lowest since Apr 2011)
    • (JP) JAPAN OCT PRELIMINARY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: +1.8% V -2.0%E (first increase in 4 months); Y/Y: -4.3% V -8.0%E
    • (JP) JAPAN NOV TOKYO CPI Y/Y: -0.5% V -0.6%E; TOKYO CPI CORE: -0.5% V -0.4%E (4-month low)
    • (JP) JAPAN OCT NATIONAL CPI Y/.Y: -0.4% V -0.4%E; NATIONAL CPI EX-FRESH FOOD: 0.0% V -0.1%E (6-month high)
    • (JP) JAPAN OCT OVERALL HOUSEHOLD SPENDING M/M: -0.1% V -0.8%E
    • (JP) JAPAN OCT JOBLESS RATE: 4.2% V 4.2%E; JOB-TO-APPLICANT RATIO: 0.80 V 0.80E
    • (JP) JAPAN OCT ANNUALIZED HOUSING STARTS: 978K V 852KE; Y/Y: 25.2% V 10.1%E (four-year high); CONSTRUCTION ORDERS Y/Y: -13.8% V 3.6% PRIOR
    • (JP) JAPAN OCT VEHICLE PRODUCTION Y/Y: -12.4% V -12.4% PRIOR
    • (IN) INDIA Q3 GDP Y/Y: 5.3% V 5.3%E
    • (AU) AUSTRALIA OCT PRIVATE SECTOR CREDIT M/M: 0.1% V 0.3%E (lowest since June 2011); Y/Y: 3.8% V 4.1%E
    • (NZ) NEW ZEALAND OCT BUILDING PERMITS M/M: -1.5% V 0.0%E (first decline in five months)
    • (NZ) NEW ZEALAND OCT MONEY SUPPLY M3 Y/Y: 5.8% V 6.4% PRIOR
    • (KR) SOUTH KOREA OCT CYCLICAL LEADING INDEX CHANGE: -0.3 V -0.7 PRIOR
    • (KR) SOUTH KOREA OCT INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: 0.6% V 1.0%E; Y/Y: -0.8% V 1.0%E
    • (SG) SINGAPORE OCT CREDIT CARD BAD DEBTS (SGD): 18.8M V 20.1M PRIOR; CREDIT CARD BILLINGS (SGD): 3.36B V 3.10B PRIOR
    • (SG) SINGAPORE OCT MONEY SUPPLY M1 Y/Y: 4.0% V 3.2% PRIOR; M2: 5.4% V 6.1% PRIOR
    • (SG) SINGAPORE OCT BANK LOANS & ADVANCES: 17.9% V 16.5% PRIOR
    • (UK) UK GFK NOV CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: -22 V -30E (highest level since May 2011)
    Markets Snapshot (as of 05:30 GMT)
    • Nikkei225 +0.8%
    • S&P/ASX +0.6%
    • Kospi +1.0%
    • Shanghai Composite +0.1%
    • Hang Seng +1.1%
    • Dec S&P500 -0.2% at 1,413
    • Feb gold flat at $1,729/oz
    • Jan Crude Oil -0.4% at $87.71/brl
    Notes/Observations

    Asian equity markets are trading higher to end the week, this time despite the ongoing logjam in the U.S. on resolving the fiscal cliff. Late in the U.S. hours, a WSJ report indicated the GOP has once again rejected the latest offer from Pres. Obama. Sen Minority Leader McConnell called the latest White House set of proposals "a step backward."A raft of economic data out Japan was largely mixed. Most notably, Oct industrial production saw its first m/m increase in four months, even as Markit Manuf PMI was at 19 month lows. METI said the growth in industrial output was driven by electronics produced for Asia and China markets, while auto sector exports were driven by demand from the U.S. Separately, Japan cabinet office unveiled a ¥880B fiscal stimulus said to be funded by remaining reserve funds under the FY12 budget.On political front, Japan's LDP party leader Abe and PM Noda sparred again in a debate ahead of the Dec. 16 elections. Noda was confident 1% inflation data is realistic, while Abe briefly sent USD/JPY off its highs when he said he will not make demands on specific monetary policy means if he is elected as PM, as policy should be decided by BoJ. Abe did reiterate he would take all measures to reach 2% inflation target. Earlier, JPY sold off across the board after a press report speculating both major parties would prefer to shake up the BoJ after the elections. Specifically, the report suggested Fin Ministry's Toshiro Muto -- an advocate of non-traditional policy -- would fit the bill as the outsider for the role of the next BoJ Gov. USD/JPY spiked up about 50 pips above ¥82.50, while EUR/JPY saw seven-month highs above ¥107.15.Currency markets were quiet elsewhere, as EUR/USD continued to oscillate around the $1.30 handle. AUD/USD underperformed for the second consecutive session in the wake of tempered CAPEX estimate for the current FY that was released by Australia stats bureau overnight. Analysts indicate that data tilts next week's RBA rate decision in favor of a cut, with some chatter it could be a 50bp move. AUD also hit three-week lows against EUR and NZD on the crosses.Currencies/Fixed Income/Commodities

    • (AU) According to one survey, 16 out of 23 economists see the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) lowering rates at its next meeting on Dec 4th - financial press
    • (AU) Australia MoF (AOFM) sells A$600M in 2015 Bonds; avg yield: 2.5992%; bid-to-cover: 4.72x
    • USD/CNY: (CN) China's CNY currency (Yuan) hits the upper limit of its daily 1.0% range on OTC market at 6.2263
    • (CN) Beijing and Shanghai may trial carbon trading in 2013 - Chinese press
    • SLV: iShares Silver Trust ETF daily holdings fall to 9,780 tons from 9,803 tons (lowest level since 9,768 on Sept 17th)
    • (U.S.) Weekly Fed Balance Sheet Assets Week ending Nov 28th: $2.833T v $2.853T prior; M1: +$21.5B v -$23.1B prior; M2: -$19.3B v -$23.7B prior
    Speakers/Political/In the Papers
    • (CN) According to senior Chinese banking regulator (CBRC) Cai Esheng: Mainland bad load are manageable, even as non-performing loans are on the rise - SCMP
    • (NZ) Stats New Zealand: Oct building permits data showing 1,639 new houses were consented in Oct, the most since May 2008 - NZ press
    • (U.S.) GOP aides: White House calling for $1.6T in tax increases up front as part of budget deal - financial press
    Equities
    • Nitori Holdings 9843.JP: To carry out first price cuts in two years; effective Friday - Yomiuri News
    • JX Holding 5020.JP: JX Energy to acquire gasoline station business of Suzuyo & Co. - Nikkei
    • Daewoo E&C 047040.KR: Plans to resume operations in Libya following suspension due to civil war - Korean press
    • HSBC Exec denies reports that it plans to exit from South Korea - Hong Kong press
    • FCG.NZ: Units commence trading under Trading Among Farmers (TAF) at NZ$6.66, a premium to NZ$5.50 issue price - NZ press
    • QAN.AU: Reports Oct passenger volume +7.4%
    • STX: Increases Quarterly Cash Dividend by 19% from $0.32 to $0.38; +1.4% afterhours
    • LMT: USAF said to have affirmed plans to buy 1,763 F-35 fighter jets in the coming years - financial press
    • YUM: Affirms FY12 EPS growth at least 13% at $3.24 v $3.27e; Guides FY13 EPS growth at least 10% (pre-items), implies at least $3.56 v $3.72e; cuts Q4 China SSS guidance; -6.7% afterhours

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