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Asian Market Update

Published 11/09/2012, 06:23 AM
Updated 01/01/2017, 02:20 AM
AUD/USD
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JP225
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HK50
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TTEF
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CPI
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AUTN
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AGG
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MA
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KR
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GC
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SI
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CL
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GLD
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SLV
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FTNMX551030
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NWSA
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BOK
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CN
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RBA
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MYR
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  • Soft China CPI sparks speculation over more easing
  • RBA lowers 2013
  • Growth Forecast

    Economic Data
    • (CN) CHINA OCT CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI) Y/Y: 1.7% V 1.9%E (lowest since Jan 2010); M/M: -0.1% v +0.1%E
    • (CN) CHINA OCT PRODUCER PRICE INDEX (PPI) Y/Y: -2.8% V -2.7%E
    • (CN) CHINA OCT URBAN FIXED ASSETS YTD M/M: +1.9%; Y/Y: 20.7% V 20.6%E (biggest increase in 7 months)
    • (CN) CHINA OCT RETAIL SALES Y/Y: 14.5% V 14.4%E (biggest increase in 7 months); RETAIL SALES YTD Y/Y: 14.1% V 14.1%E
    • (CN) CHINA OCT INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Y/Y: 9.6% V 9.4%E (biggest increase in 5 months); INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION YTD Y/Y: 10.0% V 9.9%E
    • (KR) BANK OF KOREA (BOK) LEAVES 7-DAY REPO RATE UNCHANGED AT 2.75%, AS EXPECTED
    • (AU) RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA (RBA) QUARTERLY MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT: 2013 GDP FORECAST AT 2.75% AND JUST UNDER 3% IN 2014
    • (JP) JAPAN OCT MONEY STOCK M2 Y/Y: 2.3% V 2.4%E; M3 Y/Y: 1.9% V 2.0%E
    • (NZ) NEW ZEALAND OCT CARD SPENDING RETAIL: 0.4% V 0.3%E; TOTAL: +0.4% V -0.6% PRIOR
    • (KR) SOUTH KOREA OCT PRODUCER PRICE INDEX (PPI) Y/Y: 0.2% V 1.0% PRIOR
    • (MA) MALAYSIA SEPT TRADE BALANCE (MYR): 6.5B V 7.5BE; EXPORTS Y/Y: +2.6% V -2.9%E; IMPORTS Y/Y: +9.6% V 2.0%E
    • (JP) JAPAN OCT CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 39.7 V 39.5E (3-month low)
    • (PE) PERU CENTRAL BANK LEAVES REFERENCE RATE UNCHANGED AT 4.25%, AS EXPECTED
    Markets Snapshot (as of 05:00GMT)
    • Nikkei225 -0.9%
    • S&P/ASX -0.6%
    • Kospi -0.5%
    • Shanghai Composite +0.2%
    • Hang Seng -0.4%
    • Dec S&P500 +0.4% at 1,380
    • Dec gold +0.5% at $1,734/oz
    • Dec Crude Oil +0.4% at $85.42/brl
    Notes/Observations

    Asian equity markets are trading mixed with most indices tracking another day of heavy selling on Wall St while China stocks are gaining slightly. Shanghai Composite did initially open lower, however softer than anticipated inflation data lifted expectations for continued accommodative policy stance by the PBoC. October CPI came in at a 33-month low of 1.7%, helping AUD/USD back above the $1.04 handle and S&P futures back above 1,380. Other economic datapoints out of Beijing also tracked firmer relative to consensus and prior months, with multi-month high rates of growth in industrial production and retail sales. Trade and new yuan lending data should be released late on Friday/over the weekend.

    Reserve Bank of Australia took a predictably more cautious tone in its quarterly policy statement, walking a tight balance after its surprise rate hold earlier this week. Specifically, RBA lowered its 2013 GDP midpoint target to 2.75% from 3.00% prior and also affirmed 2014 GDP midpoint at 3.00%. In addition, RBA lowered its mining investment projections to a peak of 8% rise vs 9% prior and also forecasted terms of trade to fall by 15% - a bigger decline than 13% estimated in the last policy statement. Dovish stance from the RBA statement posted early in the day helped sink AUD/USD below that $1.04 level prior to post China CPI bounce.

    Bank of Korea left interest rates unchanged at 2.75%, in line with unanimous expectations by economists. In contrast to last month's rate cut, today's decision was unanimous, as BOK pointed to risk of inflation from unstable grain prices. Out of the US, the White House scheduled its Presidential address for 1pmET on Friday. President Obama is expected to discuss the economy, deficit, and the fiscal cliff.

    Fixed Income/Currencies/Commodities

    • AUD/USD: Rises back above the $1.04 handle after softer than expected China CPI on more leeway for a potential further PBoC easing
    • (AU) Australia MoF (AOFM) sells A$600M in 4.75% 2015 bonds; avg yield 2.5931%; bid-to-cover 6.11x
    • SLV: iShares Silver Trust ETF daily holdings rise to 10,030 tons from 9,982 tons (highest since 10,046 on Sept 26th)
    • GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings rise by 2.4 tons to 1,339.6 tons (highest level since Oct 12th)
    • (US) Weekly Fed Balance Sheet Assets Week ending Nov 7th: $2.812T v $2.805T prior; M1: +$15.5B v -$12.9B prior; M2: +$45.5B v +$1.0B prior
    Speakers/Political/In The Papers
    • (CN) Second hand residential property prices in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou are rising for 7 consecutive months - Chinese press
    • (JP) According to QUICK Corp survey of analysts, Japan Q3 GDP expected to show the first contraction in 5 quarters - Nikkei News
    • (JP) Japan PM Noda to consider calling elections in December following Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) decision - financial press
    • (NZ) According to ANZ economist, fixed income markets are pricing in about an 80% chance of another RBNZ rate cut by June of 2013 following disappointing jobs data overnight - NZ press
    • (US) US President Obama to make a statement at 13:00ET on Friday; To call on Congress to take steps on economy and deficit - financial press
    • (US) Fed's Bullard (alternate, hawkish): Research suggests current Fed policy stance may be much easier than commonly thought
    Asia Equities
    • Hyundai Motor 005380.KR: According to Hagen Berman Sobol Shapiro LLP, the lawfirm for plaintiffs, damages against Korean automakers for misrepresenting fuel efficiency may approach $775M - Korean press
    • Nippon Steel 5401.JP: Reports H1 Net loss ¥176.7B v profit ¥48.8B y/y; Op loss ¥2.6B v profit ¥64.4B y/y; Rev ¥1.92T v ¥2.03T y/y; to forgo interim dividend
    • Oji Paper 3861.JP: Reports H1 Net ¥8.42B v ¥12.0B y/y, Op profit ¥21.9B v ¥33.1B y/y, Rev ¥605B v ¥611B y/y
    U.S. Equities
    • GRPN: Reports Q3 $0.00 v $0.03e, R$568.6M v $590Me; -16.1% afterhours
    • DIS: Reports Q4 $0.68 v $0.68e, R$10.8B v 10.9Be; -2.6% afterhours
    • JWN: Reports Q3 $0.71 v $0.72e, R$2.81B v $2.80Be; -2.5% afterhours
    • NVDA: Reports Q3 $0.39 v $0.39e, R$1.20B v $1.19Be; Initiates quarterly $0.075 dividend and authorizes additional $1.24B for share repurchase (about 16% of market cap); +0.3% afterhours
    • MDRX: Reports Q3 $0.23 v $0.22e, R$360.7M v $376Me; Company Evaluates Strategic Alternatives; +6.9% afterhours
    • ZIP: Reports Q3 $0.10 v $0.01e, R$78.2M v $75.3Me; +28.3% afterhours
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