The following chart illustrates that the earnings trend for S&P 500 companies, measured by 12-month trailing earnings, has sharply deteriorated and was barely above zero in Q2 (FactSet numbers for Q2 were -0.7%).
For the companies in the MSCI AC (All Country) Index (NYSE:ACIM), earnings shrank by 7%.
The last time we had similar global earnings trends was at the beginning of the ’01 recession and the Great Recession.
Source: Economics and Strategy at Bank National Financial
However FactSet now estimates S&P 500 Q3 earnings growth of -5.9%.
The last time earnings of the companies in the MSCI AC were shrinking like this without a recession was in 1993.
The last time earnings of the S&P 500 companies were close to zero without a recession was in 1998.