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Apple: Loss Of 200-Day Simple Moving Average Targets $105-110

By Dr. Arnout ter Schure Stock MarketsJun 11, 2021 02:38PM ET
www.investing.com/analysis/apple-loss-of-200day-simple-moving-average-targets-105110-200585616
Apple: Loss Of 200-Day Simple Moving Average Targets $105-110
By Dr. Arnout ter Schure   |  Jun 11, 2021 02:38PM ET
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It has been a month since I last provided an update on Apple shares (NASDAQ:AAPL). Back then, it was trading at around $122-123. Now, it’s trading at $127, a 4% gain in a month. That is not much to write home about, nor much that helps me constructively assess the next most likely move. Besides, while the NASDAQ Composite and the Nasdaq 100 are close to their all-time highs, albeit having been range-bound since February this year, Apple is still down 11.8% from its January all-time high. It is underperforming these two major indexes. Not to mention in comparison to the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average, which have set fresh all-time highs almost daily. Thus, all Apple has done so far is hold its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) on three occasions. See Figure 1 below.

As long as it can do that, the bulls have a shot at keeping prices elevated.

Figure 1. AAPL Daily candlestick chart with technical indicators and preferred Elliott Wave count

Apple Daily Candlestick Chart With Elliott Wave Count.
Apple Daily Candlestick Chart With Elliott Wave Count.

However, Apple is still below its 50-day SMA. As long as it is, the pressure remains down over the intermediate term. The price action since my last update has been somewhat overlapping and, thus, according to the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP), it is most likely corrective. I expect it – at best – to top out in the grey target zone of $132+/-2 before heading lower to the $105-110 area to complete wave-c of c of 4.

Buyers have stepped in three times at the 200-day SMA, and it is logical to assume that a fourth time there will not be any charm, and sellers will likely take over. The green dotted arrows show symmetry breakdown targets in the ideal (black) major wave-4 target zone.

Bottom line: Apple is underperforming the essential major U.S. indexes. That by itself is a sign of weakness. It has only gained 4% over a month, is barely holding on to its 200-day SMA, while having lost its 50-day SMA as support. The price action during the past month has been erratic and, per the EWP, it is, therefore, most likely corrective – i.e., when complete, expect Apple’s share price to move down again. Whereas a rally to around $132+/-2 first cannot be excluded, a loss of the 200-day SMA will then swiftly target the ideal $105-110 target zone, from where I still expect the next multi-month rally to start.

Apple: Loss Of 200-Day Simple Moving Average Targets $105-110
 

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Apple: Loss Of 200-Day Simple Moving Average Targets $105-110

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Comments (14)
jason xx
jason xx Jul 10, 2021 7:34AM ET
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This prediction still valid? If it falls that low im all in
osama sadek
osama sadek Jul 08, 2021 5:53AM ET
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Any opinion now?
ro sushetta
ro sushetta Jul 07, 2021 2:48PM ET
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what happened?
Jeff Page
Jeff Page Jun 14, 2021 12:33AM ET
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ADX?
Anil Lingam
Anil Lingam Jun 13, 2021 2:48PM ET
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Too much emphasis on technical stuff which rarely is correct
jason xx
jason xx Jun 13, 2021 2:48PM ET
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Are you sure about that? It seems to be right a lot I think its more the interpretation that is often wrong?
Mordcai Blau
Mordcai Blau Jun 13, 2021 2:03PM ET
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Apple is headed up long term. It’s the most innovating company and the self driving car will take it up to 155 pretty soon. .
Patron Silver
Patron Silver Jun 12, 2021 11:10PM ET
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couldn't be more wrong
Tanveer Ahmad
Tanveer Ahmad Jun 12, 2021 10:28PM ET
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hi thear
vijay misra
vijay misra Jun 12, 2021 3:58PM ET
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keeping the technical indicators on one side, the fact that main product iPhone cannot continue to drive the future of such a big company. Unfortunately after Steve Jobs Apple's all attempts for new ventures have not made much impact. Company is desperately trying to get in selfdriving car which is an illusion to other poineers in that space as well. Yes shorting apple may be a very good option at this point.
Bellamy Fernades
Bellamy Fernades Jun 12, 2021 12:50PM ET
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please yes
John Adeyemi
John Adeyemi Jun 12, 2021 12:50PM ET
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it's $3000
Andrew Bevan
Andrew Bevan Jun 12, 2021 11:27AM ET
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C-waves in corrections are often sudden and brutal, yet this one has kept us waiting. From your graphs it would appear that the elements we have been monitoring for now are in place.
Mike Lee
Mike Lee Jun 12, 2021 12:37AM ET
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Think your right, its going to drag the market with it, thanks for letting us know in advance
Pattie Jabbaz
Pattie Jabbaz Jun 11, 2021 5:21PM ET
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💯💯💯
CJ McC
CJ McC Jun 11, 2021 3:44PM ET
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Yep --- AAPL weakness is a 'tell tell' sign that QQQ is more than likely to drop into a 'daily cycle low' post-FOMC.
 
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