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Analysis: Oil Slides, Gold Battered By U.S. Dollar Strength

Published 05/16/2022, 02:36 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

Oil 

Oil prices are moving lower to begin the week as the general sentiment in the market isn't supporting oil demand. Investors are more worried about the strong possibility of a recession taking place in the biggest economy in the world, the US.

Even if we hit a technical recession where GDP growth shows contraction for a brief period, it would only adversely influence oil demand.

On the geopolitical front, it is evident that Germany, the largest economy in the Eurozone, is going to stop importing oil from Russia by the end of this year, regardless of what the EU decides regarding its potential embargo of Russia.

In Germany, lawmakers are doing their best to seal deals with alternative suppliers, and the government has taken a positive stance to resolve any remaining logistical obstacles within the next six months.

In terms of technical price levels, the Brent crude oil price is currently trading above the 50-day SMA on the daily time frame and flirting with its support of $100.

We are likely to see further weakness in the oil price, which means that Brent oil price may break below $100 and retest its support at $94.

Gold 

The precious metal saw tremendous weakness in its price action last week, and traders are picking up the momentum where they left off. The focus is on the dollar index's strength, and even though the Chairman of the Fed has assured that the Fed isn't thinking of increasing the interest rate by more than 50 basis points, the dollar index is soaring.

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Traders know that the Fed is likely to remain on autopilot for their next two meetings, and this means an interest rate hike of 1% even before they start debating whether to maintain or increase the level of interest rate hikes.

In terms of price level, gold traders will be watching support at 1,800, violation of which will send a further bearish signal for the precious metal. The next important support zone is at 1760.

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