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AM Dear Dairy: Turbulence

Published 09/26/2012, 06:48 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM
Things that can move The US:
  • Asia weak: Japan -2.03%, China -1.75%, HK -.83%, SoKo -.55%
  • Australia internet skilled vacancies MoM -2.9% vs -2.8% previous
  • Singapore industrial production -2.2% YoY vs +1.0% exp, +2.5% prev
  • Japanese car companies to cut production further in China due to protests
  • Europe sharply lower: Eurostoxx -1.71%, Dax -1.38%, FTSE -.96%
  • EC CDS soaring: Spain to 3.89% from 3.68%, Italy to 3.58% from 3.33%
  • French consumer confidence 85 vs 86 expected, 86 previous
  • Italy retail sales -3.2% YoY vs -.8% expected, -.5% previous
  • Ireland property prices -11.8% YoY vs -13.6% previous
  • Riots raging in Spain; some Spanish regions voting on more autonomy
  • Spanish bond yields soar; 5-yr to 4.71% from 4.43%

Europe is the big story overnight, with Spain continuing to dither amongst growing unrest. Although the risk-off moves were significant, though, they remain minor in the context of the rally we've seen over the past three months. This is good news, to be sure, but also suggests there is ample room on the downside as the speedbumps to Draghi's plan emerge, a major one being Spanish denial, ironically due to the implementation of a plan to bail them out.

Philadelphia Fed President Plosser is getting the credit for kicking off the bear move yesterday, on comments that QE3 may fail to stimulate job creation. He also voiced the opinion that the program may weigh on Fed credibility. Plosser is not a voting member this year, but he is one of the more visible members of the Fed. These were not random comments but rather delivered during a speech at the district bank. The speech ironically all but reversed the gains the S&P made following the Fed's actions on September 13.

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