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All Eyes On ECB Interest Rate Decision Today

ByEmre Karaoglu
Published 07/20/2017, 03:10 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

Headlines the Economic Calendar on Thursday

U.K. Retail Sales excluding fuel to be announced today and it is expected to rise to 2.5% expected y/y growth in June, following 0.6% expansion a month ago. Any realization signaling a weakness in growth performance would be considered negative for the GBP/USD pair.

All eyes will be on ECB Interest Rate Decision today. No rate change is expected from the ECB Even the possibility of a European Central Bank hike, once seen as all but impossible, is slowly growing., however, Governor Draghi's statements about the fate of quantitative easing in Eurozone will be quite important for EUR/USD. Recall that ECB has extended QE program until December 2017 with monthly asset purchases of €60 bln. Any hint regarding a change in the program might create volatility in EUR/USD.

Additionally, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (July) will be announced today in U.S. It is expected to slightly ease to 24.0 from 27.6 a month ago. A lower than expected data would support the deceleration in the dollar index.

Daily Technical Analysis:

EUR/USD - The EUR/USD pair has shown pullbacks and it is now trading below the 1.5440 key resistance level. As long as the price continues to trade below 1.540 on a four-hourly basis, the bearish action may continue and we will face support levels at 1.1445 and 1.1365. On the other hand, if the price goes beyond 1.1540, the next resistance level will be at 1.1630.

Support: 1.1445 – 1.1365 – 1.1295
Resistance: 1.1540 – 1.1630

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GOLD - The Bullish action is still behind the Gold price and it is trading above the 1236 support level. In the event that the price continues to rise above 1236, we will face resistance level at 1255. On the other hand, if the price drops below 1236, the next support level will be at 1226.

Support: 1236 – 1226 –1210
Resistance: 1255 – 1273 – 1286

GBP/USD - The GBP/USD pair found sellers from the 1.3120 key resistance level two days ago and showed a downward movement. The pair is now trading just below the 1.3050 resistance level. In the event that the downward movement continues, we will face 1.2985 and 1.2860 as support levels. Although, if the pair rises above 1.3050, the next resistance level will be at 1.3120 again.

Support : 1.2985 – 1.2860 - 1.2775
Resistance : 1.3050 - 1.3120 – 1.3185

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