Agios Pharmaceuticals (AGIO) Q4 Earnings: What's In Store?

Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:AGIO) is scheduled to report fourth-quarter and full year 2017 results on Feb 14, before the opening bell.

Shares have soared 61.4% in a year’s time, comparing favorably with the industry’s increase of 12.8%.

Agios’ earnings track record shows strong results with the company having surpassed estimates thrice in the trailing four quarters and missed the same once. Overall, Agios has an average beat of 4.48%. Last quarter, the company delivered a positive surprise of 8.62%.

Let’s see, how things are shaping up for this quarter.

Factors at Play

Agios’ only marketed drug is Idhifa (enasidenib), which received FDA approval in August, last year for treatment of patients with relapsed or refractory acute myeloid leukemia (R/R AML) with an isocitrate dehydrogenase-2 (IDH2) mutation. Though the drug recorded nominal revenue in the last quarter, it is expected to add significantly to the company’s top line in the fourth-quarter release.

Moreover, Agios’ progress with the pipeline has been quite impressive in the fourth quarter. In fact, investors’ focus will remain on the same in the to-be reported quarter. Two interesting candidates in the company’s cancer portfolio are IDH1 mutant inhibitor, AG-120 (ivosidenib) and a pan-IDH mutant inhibitor, AG-881.

In December 2017, Agios submitted a new drug application (NDA) to the FDA for AG-120 which has been developed for treating patients with R/R AML and an IDH1 mutation. The NDA submission was based on encouraging data from dose expansion part of an ongoing phase I study, evaluating the candidate as a single agent on patients with advanced hematologic malignancies and an IDH1 mutation.

Meanwhile, Agios is conducting phase I programs on AG-881 for treating patients with advanced IDH1 or IDH2 mutant-positive solid tumors including glioma. In October 2017, the company announced positive data from the study.

Notably, Agios is busy developing AG-881 in collaboration with Celgene Corporation (NASDAQ:CELG) , which should fetch in collaboration revenues.

The company has another interesting candidate, AG-348, in its portfolio. This lead rare genetic diseases candidate is under evaluation in a phase II study on adult, transfusion-independent patients with Pyruvate kinase (PK) deficiency. Last December, Agios reported impressive data from the trial, demonstrating its potential as the first disease-modifying therapy for patients with PK deficiency.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively show that Agios is likely to beat estimates this quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a bullish Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for this to happen. But that is not the case here, as you will see below.

Zacks ESP: Agios has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% as both the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate are pegged at a loss of $1.65. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Agios has a Zacks Rank #3, which increases the predictive power of ESP. However, a company’s 0.00% Earnings ESP makes surprise prediction difficult.

We caution against the Sell-rated stocks (#4 or 5) going into an earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are a couple of health care stocks worth considering with the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:

Exelixis, Inc. (NASDAQ:EXEL) is scheduled to announce fourth-quarter results on Feb 26. The company has an Earnings ESP of +10.64% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Alkermes plc (NASDAQ:ALKS) is scheduled to release fourth-quarter results on Feb 14. The company has an Earnings ESP of +3.53% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

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