by Clement Thibault
Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), the global manufacturer of communications and media devices, is expected to report Q1 2017 earnings on Tuesday, January 31, after the market close.
Wall Street expects Apple to post an EPS of $3.22, on $76.9 billion in revenue. After three straight quarters of YoY declines in revenue, Apple is expected to grow its revenue by 1.3%, from $75.8 billion in Q1 2016 of Apple's fiscal year. Q1, which encompasses the holiday season, is traditionally Apple's strongest quarter in terms of revenue.
Will today's report set the tone for all of 2017 or will it be a mere bump up in the company's overall declining revenue trend?
1. iPhone
Given that the iPhone accounted for over 63% of Apple's revenue in fiscal 2016, the smartphone is a good place to start. Worldwide, in 2016, 211 million iPhones were sold, an 8% retreat from 2015's record 231 million units sold. Revenue from the iPhone declined by 12%, from $155 billion to $136 billion over the same period.
This four percent gap is explained by the introduction of the iPhone SE in 2016, the flagship iPhone 7's younger, less expensive brother, introduced to appeal to customers seeking the Apple experience, without paying the flagship's premium price. The iPhone SE starts at $399, while the iPhone 7 starts at $649. Though the newer, cheaper iPhone certainly helped ease the drop-off in total iPhone sales in 2016, it weighed on the device's average selling price, which explains the gap between iPhone revenues and iPhones sold.
As per its most recent report, the world's largest company by market cap continues to rely on the iPhone as its primary income source, albeit to a lesser extent than last year, when, in 2015, the iPhone accounted for 66% of Apple's revenue. While the iPhone remains immensely popular globally, lagging advances in technology at the premium end of the mobile device segment has led to fewer upgrades, which in turn has fostered slowing sales. Apple's strong ecosystem and loyal customer base are its strengths, but without worthy upgrades that continue to stoke consumer desire, even Apple's most enthusiastic fans will think twice about purchasing its latest device.
2. Services
While iPhone sales slow, the company's Services group—namely App Store revenue, Apple's insurance program for Apple devices, Apple pay, and accessory licensing—continue to provide a nice boost to Apple's numbers. Revenue in 2016 grew from $19.9 billion to $24.3 billion, or a 22% increase. While Apple doesn't provide a breakdown of its revenue, Sensor Tower estimates that App Store revenue has grown 60% in 2016, to $5.4 billion.
This segment of Apple's business is becoming increasingly important, providing 11% of overall revenue as of the company's last report and has actually overtaken hardware revenue from both the iPad and Mac. As consumers continue to live their lives increasingly online and through various applications, services are a surefire way for Apple to continue to successfully bank on its massive customer base, regardless of how strong or weak new iPhone sales may be.
Apple is estimated to own about 43.5% of the mobile market share in the U.S., according to research firm Kantar Worldpanel, which would mean there are more than enough customers the company could appeal to via ecosystem related services.
3. iPads and Macs
iPads are on a multi-year decline in both unit sales and revenues, which begs the question, 'Where is this market headed?' Consumers seem to be less enchanted with the big iPad screen, and sales contracted dramatically over the past two years, from 68 million iPads sold in 2014 to only 45 million sold in 2016, an alarming 33% decrease.
Though distressing, this makes a certain kind of sense. In 2014, Apple's flagship device was the iPhone 5S which had a 4-inch screen measured diagonally. By 2016, the year the iPhone 6S Plus was released, screen size had increased to 5.5 inches. When the iPad was first brought to market, it was unique, almost one of a kind. The current model, with its 9.47 inch screen, is less of an appealing novelty, as smartphone screens continue to grow to near-comparable sizes. As each new generation of the iPhone saw a screen-size increase, Apple itself undercut its own iPad device, and with recent, sinking sales, if Apple intends to keep the device alive, it needs to differentiate it not only from the competition, but ironically, from its own iPhone as well.
Mac sales have fallen victim to the general downward trend in computer sales. Various estimates show PC shipments were down about 6% in 2016, and the 10% decline in Mac sales mimics that trend. Indeed, smartphones have slowly replaced computers for leisure use such as surfing the web and listening to music. Computers are now used primarily for work-related tasks. Unlike the iPad, PCs still offer sufficient advantages over smartphones to justify their place in the world, but after years of being the go-to device for leisure and work, that place is shrinking.
4. Recent Potentially Negative Signals
- The rise of Chinese competitive smartphone brands such as Xiaomi and Huawei is already hurting Apple, albeit mainly in China right now, where sales fell 17% in 2016 after skyrocketing 84% in 2015. Once Apple's most promising geographical growth opportunity, the Chinese market has actually transitioned into its biggest geographical sales deficit, with -17% loss in fiscal 2016.
- Over the past two weeks, Timothy Cook, Apple's CEO, sold 90 thousand shares of the company for approximately $11-million dollars. Portfolio rebalancing or profit taking? It's not clear.
- Newly inaugurated President Trump has been firing on all cylinders since he assumed office more than a week ago; In that time he's taken shots at manufacturing and immigration, two areas which could have potentially negative effects for Apple going forward. Apple's rich, 39% profit margin is made possible, in part, because of low labor costs, since it manufactures in China. Should Apple be forced to relocate manufacturing operations to the U.S., or pay a border tax on its products, Apple's profits will certainly tumble. Additionally, last year Apple sponsored 1,500 H1B visas; any changes to that program, which Trump roundly excoriated during his campaign, will likely impact its ability to recruit talent abroad. Tax reform, (not yet announced but almost certainly in the works), could benefit Apple and its offshore cash, although there is no love lost between the President and the company's CEO.
Conclusion
In July, when Apple was trading below $100 ($98, to be exact), our analysis called for a 30% upside on shares of the company. Today, with the stock trading at around $121, 24% higher, we believe Apple is fully priced.
Today's earnings report will be of special significance since it is the first report to include a full quarter of Apple's newest flagship device, the iPhone 7, released worldwide during September and October. Years in which round model numbers are introduced—the company's device release cycle features 'X' introduced one year and the somewhat improved 'XS' introduced after that—are usually stronger years for Apple earnings, which means we will be scrutinizing this evening's report.
If the newest, round-numbered model can't improve Apple's sales figures we'll have to wait until the iPhone 8 is released. Though that date remains unknown right now, if the company's release timetable follows historical precedent it won't happen until September 2018. We could be seeing two rough years ahead for AAPL.