GOLD
Remains negative beneath 1800.
Short-term price activity remains negative beneath resistance at 1800. The bearish move is starting to be anchored once again by Gold’s last dramatic 20% capitulation in September.
There is heightened risk for a much larger decline if we confirm a weekly close beneath $1600/03 and $1530 (200-day MA/swing low), which has not been breached in 3 years!
A number of “bargain hunting” trend-followers will be watching this benchmark “line in the sand” for repeat support or a potential big squeeze lower into $1300 and perhaps even $1040-1000.
Speculative (net long) flows also support this view having recently breached a key downside level which may threaten over 2 years of sizeable long gold positions. This trigger a temporary, but dramatic setback that would ultimately offer a unique buying opportunity in the near future.
SILVER
Key support at $30.0000.
Silver is weakening back into 30.0000 and favours a test the previous swing low at 26.0700. Macro price structure continues to focus on the downside risks, following the major sell-off in September.
Such a dramatic move traditionally produces volatile trading ranges. This allows the market to have enough time to recover and accumulate renewed buying interest.
Expect a large trading range to hold between $37.0000-26.0700 over the multi-week/month horizon, with downside macro risk into $21.5165 (61.8% Fib-1999 bull market) and $20.0000. This would still maintain silver’s longterm uptrend and help offer a potential buying opportunity for the eventual resumption higher.
Continue to watch the gold-silver “mint” ratio which has now accelerated higher by 70%, suggesting further risk aversion over the next few weeks.
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29.11.2011 Daily Commodities Report
Published 11/30/2011, 02:59 AM
Updated 03/09/2019, 08:30 AM
29.11.2011 Daily Commodities Report
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