Elev8 broker's gold market outlook: NFP scenarios for XAUUSD trading

A highly anticipated U.S. Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) report is due this week. As a global Contract for Difference (CFD) broker, Elev8 provides this update to explain what traders can expect and how the price of gold might react to this economic data.

Gold's Recent Performance

Gold experienced an exceptional rally, more than tripling in value between November 2022 and January 2026. However, on 30 January 2026, XAUUSD recorded its steepest daily fall since 1983, raising the question of whether this multi-year bull run is officially over. This massive selloff was initially driven by profit-taking, but it quickly accelerated when U.S. President Donald Trump announced Kevin Warsh as his choice for the new Federal Reserve (Fed) chair. Because Warsh has a strong reputation as an inflation hawk, the news fueled investor concerns that they may face a not-so-dovish Fed in the years ahead. Furthermore, higher margin requirements at the CME Group (NASDAQ:CME) compounded the sharp drop.

Since the outbreak of the U.S. and Iran conflict, the precious metal has continued its downward trend. A rather strong bearish trend actually surprised many traders, because gold usually performs well amid geopolitical instability. However, the reason for gold's weak performance over the past months is painfully simple: the conflict in the Persian Gulf has pushed energy prices higher, reignited inflation fears and substantially altered monetary-policy expectations across the G7 (from dovish to hawkish).

'Before the conflict, the market theme for 2026 was a pivot toward lower interest rates, but the war has effectively paused that narrative', says Kar Yong Ang, a financial market expert at Elev8 broker. Indeed, central banks cannot cut rates while energy-driven inflation remains unanchored. The Fed is now expected to keep interest rates unchanged at least until January 2027, while other major central banks may hike rates as soon as this June. This synchronised global hawkishness creates a fundamental shift that puts heavy pressure on gold's investment value.

How important is the NFP

Although the NFP report is historically considered the most influential economic release in the financial markets, this time may be different. In the current environment, the global investment community is focused on developments in the Persian Gulf, inflation fears, and uncertainty surrounding Kevin Warsh's likely policy stance. Consequently, the upcoming NFP may prove relatively unimportant compared with these bigger drivers. Furthermore, recent news has been anything but supportive for gold: renewed hostilities in the Gulf have bolstered demand for the U.S. dollar, weighing on bullion.

Meanwhile, recent U.S. labour data shows a mixed picture. Job openings increased significantly in April, but the hiring rate actually declined due to economic uncertainty from the Iran war. Resignations also fell to the lowest level in nearly six years, indicating that workers lack confidence in the job market. Economists continue to characterise the labour market as 'slow-hire, slow-fire'.

NFP scenarios: bullish or bearish for gold

The market expects this Friday's report to show a model 86k rise in payrolls, an unemployment rate of 4.3%, and average hourly earnings slowing to 3.4% year-on-year.

A robust labour-market print would reinforce the 'higher for longer' narrative already priced into currencies and commodities. In that case, XAUUSD could quickly lose the structural support at 4,400, opening the path toward 4,310 and then 4,220. CFD traders may wish to tighten stop-loss levels or reduce leverage in anticipation of accelerated downside momentum.

For gold to rally meaningfully, the NFP would need to undershoot expectations substantially—an outcome the market currently assigns low probability. A 'negative growth' surprise (for example, if NFP shows a drop in payrolls) could propel XAUUSD above 4,600 and toward the next resistance zones at 4,680 and 4,770. However, any sustained rally would require monetary-policy expectations to turn less hawkish. That shift, in turn, depends on cooling inflation, which itself hinges on some form of political normalisation in the Persian Gulf.

XAUUSD 4-hour chart