2026 market outlook: Gold, oil, and the forces shaping global markets

As 2026 begins, these two assets remain vital indicators of sentiment. Gold reflects confidence and caution, while oil signals growth momentum and supply dynamics.

According to Wael Makarem, Exness financial markets strategists lead, both assets reveal the psychology behind market behavior. “Gold and oil are not just commodities,” he explains. “They mirror inflation expectations, risk appetite, and the broader macro balance. Understanding what drives them helps traders see where opportunity meets caution.”

Looking back at 2025

Inflation cooled from record highs, but global growth remained uneven. Central banks in the US and Europe took a data-driven approach, weighing whether to maintain or gradually ease restrictive policies. Meanwhile, conflicts and supply disruptions reminded markets that geopolitical risk remains an enduring factor in the global economy.

These developments reinforced gold’s safe-haven reputation and underlined oil’s sensitivity to both demand and geopolitics. Traders navigating these shifts relied on precision, speed, and stable trading conditions to manage positions during major announcements and data releases.

“When volatility rises, even small differences in execution quality can influence outcomes,” says Makarem. “That’s why we focus on precise execution¹  and spread stability² , so traders can act decisively and with confidence.”

The macro backdrop for 2026

Some regions are stabilizing as inflation cools, while others still feel the delayed impact of higher rates. Fiscal policy and election cycles add more uncertainty to the mix. Central banks are expected to remain cautious, balancing the risk of easing too soon with the need to sustain growth. Markets will likely react quickly to any change in tone, making every policy statement or inflation release a potential trigger for volatility.

Gold outlook: Between confidence and caution

Gold’s path will depend on real interest rates and central-bank decisions. If inflation continues to fall while rates remain high, real yields may pressure the metal; a dovish shift could quickly reignite demand.

“Gold is where traders express views on both fear and policy,” notes Makarem. “We’ve enhanced our trading conditions with tight, stable spreads on XAUUSD³ and execution⁴ that remains reliable even in volatile periods. This precision allows traders to capture opportunities as market sentiment shifts.”

Oil outlook: Supply, demand, and transition

Oil’s path through 2026 outlook will hinge on OPEC+ discipline, US output, and global demand recovery. While renewable expansion continues to shape long-term expectations, underinvestment in traditional production could lead to sharper short-term price swings.

“Oil sits at the crossroads of growth, energy policy, and geopolitics,” adds Makarem. “Traders need reliability when markets move fast, which is why we’ve optimized spreads and execution for USOIL—helping clients respond with speed and confidence.”

Trading with precision and control

For traders navigating fast-moving commodities like gold and oil, the quality of trading conditions isn’t a detail; it’s the difference between capturing an opportunity and missing it. That’s why Exness builds its entire infrastructure around stability and precision. The platform delivers better-than-market conditions through consistently tight spreads on popular assets like XAUUSD and USOIL,³ execution engineered for precision during high-impact moments,⁴  and instant withdrawals that process 98% of requests automatically.⁵

Features like Negative Balance Protection add an additional layer of control, ensuring clients never lose more than their balance, regardless of how sharp the market moves. The result is an environment where traders can operate with clarity and confidence, focusing on their strategy while Exness handles the underlying complexity.

“Our mission is to let traders focus on strategy while we take care of the infrastructure,” concludes Makarem. “Reliability, transparency, and control are what turn opportunity into consistency.”

Key Themes for Traders

• Inflation and interest-rate trends will guide gold’s performance.
• OPEC+ production strategy and global industrial demand will influence oil volatility.
• Dollar movements may amplify commodity price trends.
• Execution quality, cost efficiency, and reliability will be decisive for trading sustainability.

As 2026 unfolds, gold and oil are likely to continue mirroring the forces shaping the global economy: policy, growth, and geopolitics. For traders, the challenge is not only to anticipate these shifts but to navigate them with confidence, clarity, and precision.

¹  Most precise execution claims refer to average slippage rates on pending orders based on data collected between September 2024 and July 2025 for XAUUSD, USOIL, and BTC CFDs on the Exness Standard account vs similar accounts offered by four other brokers.

²  Spreads may fluctuate and widen due to factors including market volatility and liquidity, news releases, economic events, when markets open or close, and the type of instruments being traded.                             

³ Tightest and most stable spread claims refer to the lowest maximum spreads and the tightest average spreads on the Exness Pro account, for XAUUSD and USOIL, based on data collected from 12-25 May 2025, when compared to the corresponding spreads across the commission-free accounts of other brokers.

⁴ Delays and slippage may occur. No guarantee of execution speed or precision is provided. 

⁵ At Exness, over 98% of withdrawals are processed automatically. Processing times may vary depending on the chosen payment method.