Breaking News
0
Ad-Free Version. Upgrade your Investing.com experience. Save up to 40% More details

As Iran veers right, ties with Gulf Arabs may hinge on nuclear pact

WorldJun 20, 2021 12:55AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This article has already been saved in your Saved Items
 
2/2 © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Presidential candidate Ebrahim Raisi gestures after casting his vote during presidential elections at a polling station in Tehran, Iran June 18, 2021. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS 2/2

By Ghaida Ghantous

DUBAI (Reuters) -Gulf Arab states are unlikely to be deterred from dialogue to improve ties with Iran after a hardline judge won the presidency but their talks with Tehran might become tougher, analysts said.

Prospects for better relations between Muslim Shi'ite Iran and Sunni Gulf Arab monarchies could ultimately hinge on progress to revive Tehran's 2015 nuclear accord with world powers, they said, after Ebrahim Raisi won Friday's election.

The Iranian judge and cleric, who is subject to U.S. sanctions, takes office in August, while nuclear talks in Vienna under outgoing President Hassan Rouhani, a more pragmatic cleric, are ongoing.

Saudi Arabia and Iran, longtime foes, began direct talks in April to contain tensions at the same time as global powers have been embroiled in nuclear negotiations.

"Iran has now sent a clear message that they are tilting to a more radical, more conservative position," said Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, a UAE political analyst, adding that Raisi's election might make improving Gulf ties a tougher challenge.

"Nevertheless, Iran is not in a position to become more radical ... because the region is becoming very difficult and very dangerous," he added.

The United Arab Emirates, whose commercial hub Dubai has been a trade gateway for Iran, and Oman, which has often played a regional mediation role, were swift to congratulate Raisi.

Saudi Arabia and Bahrain are the only Gulf states yet to comment.

"The faces may change but the leader is (Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali) Khamenei," columnist Khaled al-Suleiman wrote in Saudi newspaper Okaz.

Raisi, an implacable critic of the West and an ally of Khamenei, who holds ultimate power in Iran, has voiced support for continuing the nuclear negotiations.

"If the Vienna talks succeed and there is a better situation with America, then (with) hardliners in power, who are close to the supreme leader, the situation may improve," said Abdulaziz Sager, chairman of Gulf Research Center.

LEVERAGE

A revived nuclear deal and the lifting of U.S. sanctions on the Islamic Republic would boost Raisi, easing Iran's economic crisis and offering leverage in Gulf talks, said Jean-Marc Rickli, an analyst at Geneva Centre for Security Policy.

Neither Iran nor Gulf Arabs want a return to tensions of 2019 which saw attacks on tankers in Gulf waters and on Saudi oil installations, then the 2020 U.S. killing, under former President Donald Trump, of top Iranian general Qassem Soleimani.

A perception that Washington was now disengaging militarily from the area under U.S. President Joe Biden has prompted a more pragmatic Gulf approach, analysts said.

Nevertheless, Biden has demanded Iran rein in its missile programme and end its support for proxies in the region including in Yemen, which are key demands of Gulf Arab nations.

"The Saudis have realised they can no longer rely on the Americans for their security ... and have seen that Iran has the means to really put pressure on the kingdom through direct attacks and also with the quagmire of Yemen," Rickli said.

Saudi-Iran talks have focused mainly on Yemen, where a military campaign led by Riyadh against the Iran-aligned Houthi movement for over six years no longer has U.S. backing.

The UAE has maintained contacts with Tehran since 2019, while also forging ties with Israel, Iran's arch regional foe.

Sanam Vakil, an analyst at Britain's Chatham House, wrote last week that regional conversations, particularly on maritime security, were expected to continue but "can only gain momentum if Tehran demonstrates meaningful goodwill".

As Iran veers right, ties with Gulf Arabs may hinge on nuclear pact
 

Related Articles

ASEAN appoints Brunei diplomat as envoy to Myanmar
ASEAN appoints Brunei diplomat as envoy to Myanmar By Reuters - Aug 04, 2021

By Tom Allard JAKARTA (Reuters) -Foreign ministers from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have appointed Brunei's second minister for foreign affairs, Erywan...

Add a Comment

Comment Guidelines

We encourage you to use comments to engage with other users, share your perspective and ask questions of authors and each other. However, in order to maintain the high level of discourse we’ve all come to value and expect, please keep the following criteria in mind:  

  •            Enrich the conversation, don’t trash it.

  •           Stay focused and on track. Only post material that’s relevant to the topic being discussed. 

  •           Be respectful. Even negative opinions can be framed positively and diplomatically. Avoid profanity, slander or personal attacks directed at an author or another user. Racism, sexism and other forms of discrimination will not be tolerated.

  • Use standard writing style. Include punctuation and upper and lower cases. Comments that are written in all caps and contain excessive use of symbols will be removed.
  • NOTE: Spam and/or promotional messages and comments containing links will be removed. Phone numbers, email addresses, links to personal or business websites, Skype/Telegram/WhatsApp etc. addresses (including links to groups) will also be removed; self-promotional material or business-related solicitations or PR (ie, contact me for signals/advice etc.), and/or any other comment that contains personal contact specifcs or advertising will be removed as well. In addition, any of the above-mentioned violations may result in suspension of your account.
  • Doxxing. We do not allow any sharing of private or personal contact or other information about any individual or organization. This will result in immediate suspension of the commentor and his or her account.
  • Don’t monopolize the conversation. We appreciate passion and conviction, but we also strongly believe in giving everyone a chance to air their point of view. Therefore, in addition to civil interaction, we expect commenters to offer their opinions succinctly and thoughtfully, but not so repeatedly that others are annoyed or offended. If we receive complaints about individuals who take over a thread or forum, we reserve the right to ban them from the site, without recourse.
  • Only English comments will be allowed.

Perpetrators of spam or abuse will be deleted from the site and prohibited from future registration at Investing.com’s discretion.

Write your thoughts here
 
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
 
Post
Post also to:
 
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
1000
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Thanks for your comment. Please note that all comments are pending until approved by our moderators. It may therefore take some time before it appears on our website.
Comments (2)
Idan Mizrahi
Idan Mizrahi Jun 20, 2021 5:16AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
Furthermore on the propaganda front, Israel, a democratic western country, is not the arch foe of any other country. It is Iran that is committed, as they believe is commanded by god, to destroy Israel.
Jose Maderno
Jose Maderno Jun 19, 2021 4:53PM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
Reuters propaganda continues ... Iran can be trusted absolutely now that the hardliner is in.  All is tolerable as long as John Kerry gets that Nobel... The sources within the Gulf States and Reuters agree.
 
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
 
Post
 
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
1000
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Add Chart to Comment
Confirm Block

Are you sure you want to block %USER_NAME%?

By doing so, you and %USER_NAME% will not be able to see any of each other's Investing.com's posts.

%USER_NAME% was successfully added to your Block List

Since you’ve just unblocked this person, you must wait 48 hours before renewing the block.

Report this comment

I feel that this comment is:

Comment flagged

Thank You!

Your report has been sent to our moderators for review
Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.
Continue with Google
or
Sign up with Email