As the Iowa caucus approaches in just under four weeks, and the New Hampshire primary is around five weeks away, Piper Sandler's strategists examined the current state of the race.
National polls indicate that Donald Trump maintains a significant lead, holding a commanding 50-percentage-point advantage over other contenders.
In Iowa, Trump's lead is approximately 51%, according to the RealClearPolitics (RCP) average, with a notable 32-percentage-point lead over DeSantis.
The potential for Trump to secure a victory with a plurality in a divided field has increased, given Haley's plateau in Iowa and DeSantis maintaining a narrow second-place position, according to analysts.
“There is plenty of evidence Trump could run away with the GOP primary,” they said.
While Haley has gained traction in New Hampshire, the polls suggest she would secure a clear second-place finish behind Trump but lag significantly.
In such a scenario, where neither DeSantis nor Haley withdraws from the race, Trump could potentially secure victories in South Carolina and other states in a three-person competition.
The dynamics of the race, as outlined by Piper Sandler, suggest that Trump's lead remains formidable, setting the stage for an interesting and closely watched primary season.
“One way or the other, the race will probably be effectively over by the middle of March,” the strategists concluded.