Barclays global strategists anticipate a gentle slowdown in the global economy in 2024, characterized by low peak jobless rates and continued declines in inflation across major economies.
The global economy likely won’t complete a soft landing, although it should be fairly benign, strategists at the bank wrote in their outlook for 2024.
“Much of the hard work is done,” the analysts said in reference to aggressive hiking cycles.
“Our forecast is for the US, euro area, and China to grow at 1.2%, 0.3% and 4.4%, respectively, in 2024.”
Given the current conditions, Barclays finds stocks more attractive than bonds at these levels.
“Having had a good 2023, stocks are not compellingly cheap, in our view, and consensus forecasts for double-digit earnings growth for the S&P500 in 2024 and 2025 seem optimistic to us in a world of lower nominal GDP growth. Nevertheless, we expect equities to look through 2024’s slowdown, assuming we are right about this being the bottom of the cycle,” the analysts added.
More precisely, Barclays projects that global equities will be able to “eke out mid- to high-single-digit returns in 2024,” which will be enough to outperform core fixed income.
“2024 is likely to be as challenging to navigate as the past few years have been, even if we think the end outcome is relatively benign. It is our hope that this publication helps you, our clients, avoid pitfalls and seize opportunities in the months ahead,” the analysts concluded.