KeyBanc said in a research note Thursday that results from its July monthly carrier survey indicate slower Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPhone sell-through trends.
The trends were in line to slightly below store expectations, according to KeyBanc analysts, who added that macro headwinds persisted.
"Key First Look Data [KFLD] also indicates weaker sales of iPhones (-2% m/m, -8% y/y), which were below historical seasonal trends. This likely reflects continued inflationary pressure on consumer spending and emerging signs of a seasonal iPhone 15 pause," the analysts wrote.
"KFLD for July shows indexed spending +6% m/m, below the three-year average of +18%, which we are comparing against June's earlier than typical launch of Mac products," they added.
Therefore, the firm's data suggests below-typical revenue growth for AAPL, the analysts said.
"With U.S. upgrade rates trending at all-time lows, we believe there will likely be weakness domestically, which will need to be offset again by outperformance internationally," they said.
KeyBanc sees a balanced near-term risk/reward for Apple, maintaining a $200 per share price target and an Overweight rating on the stock.