The week ahead brings the Davos World Economic Forum, the U.S. Martin Luther King holiday, more U.S. government shutdown politics, notes Bob Savage.
The week ahead brings the Davos World Economic Forum, the U.S. Martin Luther King holiday, more U.S. government shutdown politics, more central bank decisions and outlooks with the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan front and center.
The Chinese data that starts the week – Q4 GDP along with industrial production and retail sales will be key to setting the tone on whether the U.S. trade deal hopes are enough along with Beijing stimulus to keep the global growth hopes intact. The flash PMI reports are expected to rise in Europe and drop in Japan and the United States while the German IFO Business Climate Survey and ZEW Financial Market Test are also expected to moderate. Earnings for 4Q will continue to matter as will the sparse U.S. data on housing and jobless claims.
Monday, Jan. 21: US MLK holiday, China 4Q GDP, Dec IP, retail sales, German PPI, WEF Davos starts
- 0600 pm Japan Jan Reuters Tankan 23p
- 0900 pm China 4Q GDP 6.5%p 6.4%e
- 0900 pm China Dec retail sales 8.1%p 8.2%e
- 0900 pm China Dec industrial production 5.4%p 5.3%e
- 0900 pm China Dec (ytd) fixed asset investment 5.9%p 6%e
- 0200 am German Dec PPI (m/m) 0.1%p -0.2%e (y/y) 3.3%p 2.9%e
- 0600 am German Bundesbank monthly
- 0600 pm Korea 4Q GDP 2%p 2.8%e
- 0400 am Spain Nov trade deficit E3.8bn p E3.0bn e
- 0430 am UK Dec claimant count 21.9k p 20k e / 3M (NYSE:MMM) Nov unemployment 4.1%p 4.1%e / average earnings 3.3%p 3.3%e / ex bonus 3.3%p 3.3%e
- 0430 am UK Dec PSNB GBP6.35bn p GBP1.2bn e
- 0500 am German Jan ZEW economic sentiment -21p -20.1e / current conditions 45.3p 43e
- 0830 am Canada Nov wholesale sales (m/m) 1%p 0.4%e / manufacturing sales -0.1%p -1.1%e
- 1000 am US Dec existing home sales (m/m) 1.9%p -1.3%e / 5.32mn p 5.25mn e
- 1130 am US sells 3M and 6M bills
- 0545 pm New Zealand 4Q CPI (q/q) 0%p 0.9%e (y/y) 1.8%p 1.9%e
- 0650 pm Japan Dec Trade deficit Y737bn p Y30bn e / exports 0.1%p -1.9%e / imports 12.5%p 3.7%e
- 1000 pm Japan BOJ rate decision – no change from QE but 1Q outlook cut to CPI/GDP
- 0245 am French Jan business confidence 104p 103e
- 0540 am German 5Y Bobl auction
- 0600 am UK Jan CBI industrial trends orders 8p 5e / 1Q optimism -16p -26e
- 0830 am Canada Nov retail sales (m/m) 0.3%p -0.5%e / ex autos 0%p -0.5%e
- 0900 am US Nov FHA house prices (m/m) 0.3%p 0.2%e
- 1000 am US Richmond Fed manufacturing index -8p -6e
- 0430 pm US weekly API oil inventories -0.56mb p
- 0700 pm Australia Dec Westpac LEI -0.1%p 0.1%e
- 0730 pm Australia Dec employment changes 37k p 16.5k e / unemployment rates 5.1%p 5.1%e / participation 65.7%p 65.7%e
- 0730 pm Japan Jan flash manufacturing PMI 52.6p 52.4e
- 0800 pm Bank of Korea rate decision – no change from 1.75% expected
- 1200 am Japan Nov final LEI 99.6p 99.3e / coincident 104.9p 103e
- 0315 am France Jan flash composite PMI 48.7p 50.9e / manufacturing 49.7p 49.9e / services 49p 50.5e
- 0330 am German Jan flash composite PMI 51.6p 51.9e / manufacturing 51.5p 51.3e / services 51.8p 52e
- 0330 am Sweden Dec unemployment 5.5%p 5.8%e
- 0400 am Eurozone flash composite PMI 51.1p 51.4e / manufacturing 51.4p 51.4e / services 51.2p 51.5e
- 0500 am France sells 3 and 5Y BTAN
- 0745 am ECB rate decision – no change from -0.4% and 0% rates
- 0830 am US weekly jobless claims 213k p 220k e
- 0945 am US Jan flash composite PMI 54.4p 54.2e / manufacturing 53.8p 53.5e / services 54.4p 54.2e
- 1000 am US Dec conference board LEI 0.2%p
- 1100 am US weekly EIA oil inventories -2.683mb p
- 0630 pm Japan Tokyo core CPI 0.9%p 0.9%e
- 0330 am Sweden Dec retail sales (m/m) 0.8%p 0.2%e
- 0400 am German Jan IFO 101p 100.6e / current conditions 104.7p 104.2e / expectations 97.3p 97.0e
- 0600 am UK Jan CBI retail trade -13p +2e