By Marc Jones
LONDON (Reuters) -Panama's investment grade credit rating is safe for now, Fitch's top analyst on the country has told Reuters, despite a bitter row over a lucrative but controversial copper mining contract approved by the government last month.
Concerns about Panama's finances intensified this week after protests spurred President Laurentino Cortizo to call for a binding public referendum on a $375 million-per-year deal with Canadian-based First Quantum Minerals (OTC:FQVLF) to run the Cobre Panama mine.
The mine is the country's second-largest revenue source after the Panama Canal and supports more than 49,000 jobs, analysts estimate, so any delay in the money it provides could mean further deterioration of the government's finances.
"We are not necessarily in a rush," Carlos Morales, Fitch's primary Panama analyst, said when asked whether the fresh uncertainty around the mine could impact the country's BBB- rating.
The score was put on a "negative outlook" - effectively a downgrade warning - in September. Major agencies like Fitch often give themselves between one and two years to make their next move.
"We would have to take a broader view of the government's capacity to improve its fiscal deficit", Morales added, saying the negative outlook already encapsulated the kind of "noise" now being generated by the mine issue.
The comments are likely to come as a something of relief to Panama after Moody's (NYSE:MCO) downgraded its Panama rating earlier this week.
That move, though, only brought it into line with Fitch. Moody's also put a stable outlook on its rating, which means Fitch remains the closest to the "junk" grade threshold that usually equates to higher government borrowing costs.
"The main concern we have in Panama is the fiscal position," Morales said.
"We see a large expansion of the budget spend in 2024," when a presidential election is due and that Cortizo's party looks set to lose according to the polls. "And now we have this very controversial topic of the mining".
Panama does not allow a president to be re-elected immediately after a first term. Vice President Jose Gabriel Carrizo is representing Cortizo's party in an election next year.
Investment bank JPMorgan this week said the saga over the Cobre Panama mine, which accounts for around 1.5% of the world's copper output, has shifted the chance of Panama losing its investment grade rating from a "tail risk to a sizable risk".
The situation over the proposed referendum continues to shift. Panama's lawmakers agreed on Thursday to modify a proposed bill aimed at annulling the recently-approved contract granted to First Quantum (NASDAQ:QMCO).
Fitch's Morales said that even if the revenues from the Cobre Panama mine aren't delayed, it wouldn't necessarily "improve the government's debt trajectory" because much of that money has already been earmarked.