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© Reuters. February CPI inflation report preview: BofA and Goldman weigh in
By Senad Karaahmetovic
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is scheduled to release inflation figures for February on Tuesday, March 14.
The Street is looking for the core CPI to rise 0.4% on a month-over-month (MoM) basis. Headline CPI is expected to also rise 0.4% MoM while YoY rate is seen at 6.0%. For the month of January, the reported figures were 0.4%, 0.5%, and 6.4%, respectively.
The Federal Reserve will watch the release carefully as it is seen as the final piece of data before the central bank convenes next week to discuss its next move.
Goldman Sachs expects to see core CPI rising 0.45% MoM while headline CPI is seen at 0.4% MoM and 6.08% YoY.
"Going forward, we expect monthly core CPI inflation to remain in the 0.3-0.4% range in the next few months, reflecting higher paths for used car and shelter inflation, and we expect month-over-month core CPI inflation to come down to around 0.2% in the second half of 2023. We forecast yoy core CPI inflation of 3.7% in Dec 2023 and 2.6% in Dec 2024. The deceleration we expect in 2023 is driven more by goods than services categories," economists wrote in a client note.
Similarly, BofA economists forecast core CPI at 0.42% MoM but warn that risks are tilted to the upside.
"We do not think a 0.5% print is out of the question… given the recent gains in the Manheim used vehicle index."
Headline CPI is expected to also increase by 0.38%, which should see a YoY rate at 6.1%.
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