- Stanford University economist Tony Seba continues to draw attention this month with a paper predicting that a global shift to self-driving EVs will create a death spiral for Big Oil (USO, OIL) and major automakers caught asleep.
- Seba, known for calling the solar energy boom in advance, sees a tipping point when EVs of under $30K can deliver 200 miles of range on a mass production basis. Some of the key snippets from his paper are posted below.
- "Savings on transportation costs will result in a permanent boost in annual disposable income for U.S. households, totaling $1 trillion by 2030."
- "70% fewer passenger cars and trucks will be manufactured each year. This could result in total disruption of the car value chain, with car dealers, maintenance and insurance companies suffering almost complete destruction. Car manufacturers will have options to adapt, either as low-margin, high volume assemblers of A-EVs, or by becoming TaaS providers."
- "The impact of the collapse of oil prices throughout the oil industry value chain will be felt as soon as 2021."
- Whether you are a believer or a doubter on the EV disruption forecast, the full 77-page "Rethinking Transportation 2020-2030" paper contains some interesting angles for investors long or short the concept.
- Broadly-related auto stocks: GM, TM, FCAU, HMC, OTCPK:NSANY, F, TSLA, OTCPK:VLKAY, OTCPK:DDAIF, OTC:HYMLF, OTCPK:BMWYY, TTM, AN, KMX, SONC, ACW, ALSN, ALV, AXL, BWA, CAAS, CPS, DAN, DLPH, DORM, FDML, GNTX, JCI, LDL, LEA, LKQ, MBLY, MLR, MNRO, MOD, MPAA, MPG, MTOR, PLOW, SMP, STRT, SUP, STRT, TEN, THRM, TEN, TOWR, UFAB, VC, VOXX, WBC, ZX, UBER, KNDI, HTZ, CAR.
- Now read: Tesla: UBS Thinks A Well Equipped Model 3 Can Break Even
3rd party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Investing.com. See disclosure here or
remove ads
.
Original article