The "negative groupthink" sentiment on Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) is "way overdone," according to analysts at Wedbush in a note Wednesday.
They told investors that their firm sees the iPhone maker reporting a good iPhone/services outlook when it posts earnings after the close on Thursday.
"Right now, the overall sentiment of Apple on the Street is a negative 'groupthink mentality' heading into the print that we view as very disconnected from the current iPhone 15 growth we see in the field based on our recent checks and trip to Asia, that gives us a high level of confidence in owning Apple at these levels," said the analysts, who maintained an Outperform rating on the stock.
"We believe a slight upside in the September quarter led by a stronger Services growth now back to double digits with iPhone unit demand activity in the US/Europe key this quarter," they added. Total revenue of $89 billion and EPS of $1.39 we view as beatable numbers this quarter. Mac and iPad remain weak and have tough comparables but that dynamic is known by the New York City cab driver at this point and does not move the needle on the stock in our opinion. It's all about iPhone 15 demand and Services growth back in the double digits for FY24."
The analysts added that the elephant in the room this quarter is "clearly China demand around iPhone 15 units," which Wedbush believes appears to have slowed the last month after coming out of the gates strong with pre-order activity.
"We believe Cook will have a generally positive tone on the call around China iPhone demand for the December quarter despite massively negative Street sentiment building around the Cupertino story," contend the analysts. "In a nutshell, we believe over 100 million iPhones in China alone are in the window of an upgrade opportunity and that remains the golden goose on this cycle for Apple with a very heavy mix of iPhone Pro this time."
Wedbush said that with Service revenue back to double-digit growth and iPhone units that should be in the ~225 million range for FY24, the "growth demise story" of Apple being spun by bears is a dynamic that has constantly played out over the past decade, "and this is just another chapter in that book."