By Senad Karaahmetovic
J.P. Morgan analyst Doug Anmuth reiterated a Top Pick designation on Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) following the US e-commerce spending data released by the Department of Commerce.
Although the e-commerce penetration has dipped for the 4th straight quarter, the analyst notes that AMZN’s Online Stores actually accelerated on a three-year growth basis in Q1.
“Macro headwinds from slowing consumer discretionary spending amidst inflation, supply chain pressures, & further reopening are likely to weigh on 2Q US e-comm growth—especially in the first half of the quarter—and we model similar +7% Y/Y growth in 2Q US e-comm sales. However, e-comm growth should accelerate in 2H22 as comps ease, & we model just under +10% Y/Y growth for the full year 2022, as well as US e-commerce penetration of 22.2% (+136bps Y/Y). Longer-term, we continue to believe US e-comm penetration can reach 40%+ of total US adj retail sales,” Anmuth told clients in a note.
The analyst expects to see accelerated revenue growth and higher margins for Amazon as comps ease and spending slows down. A core pillar of Anmuth’s bullish stance on Amazon is AWS, which exited Q1 with its largest-ever backlog at $88.9 billion.
“We believe 30%+ AWS revs growth is sustainable in 2022 (JPMe 34%) given only a mid-teens % of workloads & 5-15% of IT spending in the cloud today, though we recognize there could be some volatility as certain companies pare back costs. AMZN Advertising should grow meaningfully as comps ease & we model +28% FXN Y/Y Ad revs growth in ’22 to ~$39B,” the analyst concluded.