* OECD says Russian economy to shrink by 5.6 pct in 2009
* Analysts polled by Reuters see contraction of 2.9 pct
* Russian officials say growth could resume in Q4
(Wraps in Reuters poll with OECD/Kudrin story)
By Toni Vorobyova
MOSCOW, March 31 (Reuters) - The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development gave on Tuesday the most pessimistic outlook for the Russian economy to date, saying it would shrink by 5.6 percent, despite new upbeat comments by officials.
Economists polled by Reuters however said the contraction would be half as big, with the worst of the crisis falling on the current quarter and the rouble holding stable [ID:nRUPOLL].
The Russian economy has been rocked by a collapse in oil prices, vast outflows of capital and waning demand for exports as the global economic crisis intensified.
"The output is set to continue falling at least through mid-2009. Negative wealth effects and rising unemployment will weigh on private consumption, while falling demand and financing constraints will hit investment," the OECD said in a report.
The OECD said Russia would be the hardest hit economy among the BRIC top emerging countries club as India and China will still show strong growth of 4.3 and 6.3 percent respectively and Brazil's economy will contract only 0.3 percent.
The OECD's view is even more glum than the World Bank's which on Monday said the Russian economy will contract 4.5 percent and the country must step up spending to save 4 million from poverty and stave off social unrest [ID:nLU211000].
Their expectations are in contrast with the 2.2 percent contraction predicted by the Russian government and the 2.9 percent median forecast in a Reuters poll of 20 economists.
"We do not share the... deep pessimism and believe that following the stabilisation of the rouble, the government has a better chance of improving liquidity and kick-starting lending via state-owned banks, which should give a fillip to the decelerating economy," ING said in a research note.
BIG UNCERTAINTY
In the Reuters poll, GDP forecasts ranged from plus 3 percent to minus 10 percent, illustrating the breadth of views.
"Forecast uncertainty is bigger than in the past," said Zsolt Papp, economist at KBC. "Crude oil prices pose the biggest swing factor, the latest price trend on balance is positive for the Russian outlook but near-term prospects remain negative."
Officials have shown signs of optimism in the past month after the oil price recovered from its lows, with First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov saying the economy was near the bottom and things could improve by the end of the year.
Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin echoed his comments on Tuesday saying growth will resume in the fourth quarter of 2009.
"According to our forecasts, we will see growth beginning by the end of the year," Kudrin said.
Russia's Economy Ministry expects GDP to fall 7 percent in the first quarter after an 8 percent slump in January-February.
Deputy Economy Minister Andrei Klepach said on Tuesday there were some downside risks to the government's GDP view, but the contraction is unlikely to be as sharp as 4.5 percent.
The OECD said oil prices and the global economic situation were key for Russia's prospects.
"Even though policy responses are providing considerable support to the economy, the combination of extremely large adverse external shocks and certain domestic vulnerabilities -- notably fragile confidence in banks and the currency -- make a quick return to strong growth unlikely", it said.
"If global conditions turn out even worse than expected, recovery in Russia could be delayed into 2010 or beyond. On the other hand...if higher (oil) prices are sustained then recovery could be earlier and more rapid than projected," it added. (Reporting by Toni Vorobyova, writing by Dmitry Zhdannikov; editing by Ron Askew)