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USD/JPY falls sharply testing 100 level as Abe cabinet approves stimulus

Published 08/02/2016, 06:17 PM
Updated 08/02/2016, 06:25 PM
USD/JPY fell considerably on Tuesday to drop to near 1-year lows

Investing.com -- USD/JPY fell sharply, sliding to near one-year lows, as Japan prime minister Shinzo Abe's cabinet approved a massive stimulus package on Tuesday in an apparent last-ditch effort to boost persistently low inflation.

The U.S. Dollar fell more than 1.5% to an intraday low of 100.68 against the Yen, its lowest level in three weeks, before ending the U.S. afternoon session at 100.88 (down 1.45). Over the last week, the Dollar has tumbled nearly 5% against the Japanese currency. More broadly, the Dollar nearly fell below 100 in Tuesday's session, its lowest level over the last 12 months.

The currency pair dropped steadily throughout Tuesday's session after the Japanese government passed a ¥28 trillion stimulus package proposed by Abe earlier last month. Abe's economic stimulus plan was approved mere days after the Bank of Japan surprised markets by implementing only modest easing measures at a closely-watched meeting last week. The $274 billion stimulus is one of the Japanese government's largest since the Financial Crisis and comes amid growing sentiment that Japan's economy will need to rely upon fiscal, not monetary policy in order to stave off deflation.

As part of the plan, the government will provide cash subsidies to as many as 22 million low-income residents, while providing support to communities in the southern region of the nation, which was hit by a devastating earthquake in the spring. Notably, the government will only provide approximately ¥7.5 trillion in direct spending, Reuters reported. The Dollar crashed by more than 3% against the Yen last Friday after the Bank of Japan rattled markets by only approving limited ETF purchases at a closely-watched meeting in Tokyo.

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Elsewhere, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) said on Tuesday morning that Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose by 0.1% in June, slightly below consensus estimates of a 0.2% increase following a gain of 0.2% over the previous month. The gains are reflected by an uptick in spending for gas, electricity and healthcare services, which were partially offset by a reduction in spending in new vehicles. Over the last 12 months, the PCE Price Index has increased by 0.9% -- remaining unchanged from the year-over-year gains exhibited in May.

The Core PCE Index, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, inched up by 0.1% in June, in line with consensus estimates and below May's 0.2% monthly increase. On an annual basis, Core personal consumption expenditures are up by 1.6%, unchanged from May's level. At last week's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) July monetary policy meeting, the Committee said market-based measures of inflation continue to remain low, as the Core PCE index hovers below its long-term targeted objective of 2%.

While delivering a speech on monetary policy and the global economy in Beijing, Dallas Fed president Rob Kaplan urged the U.S. central bank to raise rates in a "gradual and patient manner," amid continuing challenges facing the U.S. economy. A day earlier, Kaplan told Bloomberg in a televised interview that a September rate hike is still on the table.

Hours later, Atlanta Fed president Dennis Lockhart said in an exclusive interview with CNBC that he didn't rule out the possibility for a rate hike from the FOMC when it meets next in September. Lockhart also emphasized that the Committee has been hesitant to sell bonds from its portfolio in recent months because it would create implicit tightening, placing upward pressure on interest rates. Last week, the FOMC left its benchmark Federal Funds Rate unchanged at a level between 0.25 and 0.50% for a fifth consecutive meeting.

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The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, fell sharply on Tuesday to an intraday low of 94.94, slipping below 95 for the first time since June 24. The Dollar has been in freefall since hitting four-month highs at 97.62 early last week.

Yields on the U.S. 10-Year gained three basis points to 1.56%, while yields on the Japan 10-Year soared six basis points to Minus-0.08%. After falling to record-lows last month, yields on 10-year Japanese government bonds have rallied nearly 30 basis points over the last two weeks.

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Nice But Not Impact SzrnFX said USD/JPY move as technical
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