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By Kuba Jaworowski and Karolina Slowikowska
WARSAW, Dec 5 (Reuters) - Poland's central bank will likely ease interest rates further in months ahead and a more aggressive half-point move in December cannot be ruled out, Monetary Policy Council member Jan Czekaj said on Friday.
Czekaj, a moderate on the 10-strong council whose vote has proved decisive on past rate decisions, said the bank would probably cut rates "a few" times in the near future in a bid to shield the economy from global financial crisis.
Analysts see the bank's rate-setting panel as divided between "hawks" and "doves", with Czekaj tipping the balance in favour of those who have called for swift further cuts after launching an easing cycle with a quarter-point move last month.
Governor Slawomir Skrzypek and two other dovish members on Thursday called for swift moves as the European Central Bank's decision to cut rates by 75 basis points on Thursday bolstered the case for more easing in Central Europe's emerging economies.
"I believe that in the near future, there will be a few interest rate cuts," Czekaj told TVN CNBC. "A cut at the meeting in December cannot be ruled out."
Former communist Central Europe's four biggest economies have now embarked on easing cycles as the global crisis deepened, with Hungary cutting rates by 50 basis points late last month and signalling more was to come.
The Czech central bank started easing as early as August, while Slovakia has cut rates in line with the ECB as it prepares to join the euro zone in January.
Czekaj said the economic situation, which saw the government and economists slash growth forecasts for the next year this month, could spur the MPC to cut by 25 basis points this month and said he did not rule out a 50-basis-point move.
GROWTH WORRIES
The Polish bank had stood firm in the face of easing by central banks across Europe until last month, concerned by an emerging markets sell-off which hit its zloty currency and inflation still running above 4 percent.
Dariusz Filar, who has consistently supported tighter policy than most of his colleagues on the panel, was quoted as saying on Friday it was hard to opt for rate cuts when inflation remained above the central bank's 2.5-percent target.
"The (Monetary Policy) Council is in a difficult situation. It is hard to talk of a recession phenomenon in Poland," Filar, told Gazeta Wyborcza daily.
"Besides, our inflation is almost twice as high as in the euro zone. Our wages and loans are also rising incomparably faster," he said.
But concerns have shifted to growth in recent weeks and business and politicians have called for cuts by the bank to prop up the economy.
Analysts expect inflation to moderate in the months ahead and economic growth to slow to 2.8 percent next year from 5.0-5.5 percent expected in 2008, as recession in the euro zone saps demand for exports.
Including Czekaj, analysts say the doves on the 10-strong council likely have five votes. With Skrzypek's casting vote in the event of a tie, that would deliver a cut at the next meeting, ending on Dec. 23.
A Reuters poll this week showed most analysts plumping for a 25-basis-point cut to 5.5 percent. Three predicted 50 basis points. The median forecast was for the main rate to fall to 4.5 percent by the end of next year.
"We usually adopted a policy of small steps...but the situation now is extraordinary and it will call for extraordinary measures, " Czekaj said. (Editing by Patrick Graham)