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UPDATE 1-Czech cbank keeps rates at record low, sees slowdown

Published 12/22/2010, 07:28 AM
Updated 12/22/2010, 07:32 AM
EUR/CZK
-

* Main rate stays at 0.75 percent, lowest in CEE

* Analysts say slowing growth, low inflation reasons

* Crown unmoved, markets look to 1330 GMT press conference

(Adds details, analyst, crown)

PRAGUE, Dec 22 (Reuters) - The Czech central bank kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday with inflation low and expectations for a slowdown in growth.

The key two-week repo rate

All 19 analysts in a Reuters poll forecast the bank would stay put. Markets price in no change until June next year.

The crown

The central bank called a news conference for 1330 GMT to spell out reasons for the decision.

Analysts said the bank's bleak outlook for growth in 2011 along with absence of demand-led price pressures kept policymakers from tightening policy in December.

Inflation was on target over the past two months and slightly below the central bank's forecast. [ID:nLDE6B71CF] [ID:nLDE6A218E]

Rate stability is consistent with the bank's inflation outlook released in November which implied tightening only at the end of 2011.

The bank surprised markets with that outlook in which it predicted the next year's GDP growth at 1.2 percent, a sharp deceleration from this year's expected 2.3 percent, saying budget cuts, among others, will knock growth down.

Analysts had mixed predictions as to what tone to expect at the later news conference. Danske Bank said the bank would "soften its rhetoric" and a discussion about further monetary easing could not be ruled out.

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Bank CSOB said comments could be more hawkish because the economy is set to develop better than the bank's forecast, putting upward pressure on prices.

"Rate forecasts vary widely for next year," said Michal Brozka, an analyst at Raiffeisenbank, which expects monetary tightening to begin in the fourth quarter of 2011.

"The domestic economy will grow very slowly next year because of fiscal savings and a slowdown in the euro zone, and inflation will hold near the bank's 2 percent target."

The Polish central bank also decides on rates on Wednesday and is expected to stay on hold. Hungary's central bank raised borrowing costs to 5.75 percent on Monday. [ID:nLDE6BJ196] (Reporting by Jana Mlcochova; editing by Mike Peacock)

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