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UPDATE 1-Belgium's Jan leading indicator unexpectedly rises

Published 01/23/2009, 09:42 AM
Updated 01/23/2009, 09:48 AM
KBC
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(Adds economist comments, details)

BRUSSELS, Jan 23 (Reuters) - Belgian business sentiment, a bellwether for the health of the euro zone economy, unexpectedly recovered somewhat in January as the mood improved among manufacturing chiefs, the central bank said on Friday.

The business sentiment index, often referred to as the leading indicator, rose to -27.7 from -31.3 in December, the lowest level since records began in 1980.

A Reuters poll of 17 economists had produced a median forecast for a drop to -33, with a range from -40 to -30.

"Business confidence recovered in the manufacturing industry. The indicator stabilised in the building industry, while the decline in the trade sector gained momentum," the central bank said in a statement.

The Belgian data comes ahead of the Jan. 27 release of the closely watched German Ifo business survey. A Reuters poll of 50 economists is forecasting a slight dip in the German number.

Economists said the Belgian data was no cause for celebration, with signs of stabilisation at low levels.

Belgian job cuts, such as at listed semiconductor specialist Melexis and weaving machine maker Picanol, continue to make the news, but not at the rate seen in December.

"The fourth quarter was one of the worst quarters since World War Two. It may be that it's not got any worse," ING economist Peter Vanden Houte said.

"For the German Ifo, it is possible there could be a slight move upwards, although the German PMI fell in January, while it rose in the euro zone."

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Bart Van Craeynest of KBC Securities said the euro zone was in a recession comparable to those of the mid-1970s and early 1980s in December and January. (Reporting by Philip Blenkinsop, Anne Jolis and Felix Tabitabe; editing by Dale Hudson)

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