(Repeats story ahead of data)
* What: Hong Kong October retail sales
* When: Dec. 1 at 4.30 p.m. (0830 GMT)
* Sales seen rising 3.3 percent, volumes down 0.5 percent.
HONG KONG, Nov 28 (Reuters) - Hong Kongers probably reined in spending in October, amid deepening turmoil in financial markets and rising job insecurity, with sales volumes forecast to decline for the first time since January 2007, a Reuters survey shows.
The survey estimated a 0.5 percent dip in the volume of October retail sales from a year earlier. It projected a 3.3 percent rise in the value of sales, the slowest growth since April last year.
"The outlook is more pessimistic," said Joanne Yim, chief economist at Hang Seng Bank. "The asset markets have yet to find their bottoms and the unemployment rate has reverted to an uptrend."
The forecasts for October sales would mark a sharp slowdown from previous months: Retail sales by value increased 14.1 percent in the first nine months of this year from a year earlier and rose 7.6 percent by volume.
September sales, totalling HK$20.9 billion (US$2.7 billion), rose 6.9 percent by value and 1.8 percent by volume.
Hong Kong's economy slipped into recession in the third quarter and is unlikely to rebound until the second half of next year as its key trade and finance sectors are being hit by the global financial and economic downturn.
The weak economy has already prompted some lay offs, notably at investment banks, and is making many people who are in work worried about their job security and more reluctant to spend, analysts said.
Consumer confidence in October was rocked by a highly volatile stock market and continued weakening of the property market. A drop in tourism compared with October last year would also have hurt sales as tourists account for 20-25 percent of retail sales, analysts said.
Hang Seng Bank now expects retail sales volume to rise 4.8 percent and 1.3 percent in 2008 and 2009, respectively, down from its previous growth forecast of 6 percent and 2 percent, Yim said.
A global survey by the Nielsen Company published this month showed Hong Kong suffered one of the sharpest declines in consumer confidence in the world between the first and second halves of this year.
Hong Kongers, big investors in the stock market, are feeling the impact of heavy losses on the stock market as well as a downturn in house prices. As depressed corporate profits are likely to crimp wage growth next year and force more lay-offs, consumer confidence is expected to deteriorate further, prolonging the economic slump.
Forecasts for October retail sales by value and volume (percentage change from a year earlier):
Value Volume Daiwa Inst of Research 7.0 2.0 JP Morgan n/a 0.8 UBS 3.7 -0.3 Hang Seng Bank 3.5 0 Citigroup 3.3 -1.5 Standard Chartered Bank 3.3 -0.7 ING Financial Mkts 2.8 -1.0 Bank of East Asia 2.0 -1.5 ----------------------------------------------- Median 3.3 -0.5 September 6.9 1.8 (US$=HK$7.8) (Reporting by Susan Fenton, Editing by Kazunori Takada)