* 2008 results due Friday, Feb. 6, 0630 GMT
* 2008 EPS expected up 7.8 percent at 8.47 euros
* Downward revision seen for 2007-2012 EPS growth target
* Eyes on project delays, potential acquisitions
By Gilbert Kreijger
AMSTERDAM, Feb 4 (Reuters) - Franco-Dutch property group Unibail-Rodamco is expected to report a rise in full-year earnings per share on higher rental income, but analysts expect a downward revision of its mid-term growth target.
Unibail-Rodamco, Europe's biggest listed property company with 26.1 billion in assets, is seen posting a 7.8 percent rise in recurring earnings per share (EPS) to 8.47 euros, a Reuters survey of five analysts showed.
The company pays out between 85 percent and 95 percent of EPS as a dividend, making EPS the main number investors and analysts look at.
The group, which so far has not suffered from falling property prices in the same way as Britain's Land Securities and Spain's Colonial, thanks to its reduced exposure to both countries, said in July it expected an EPS growth of at least 7 percent for 2008 but did not reiterate its target of 10 percent annual average growth for the 2007-2012 period.
Analysts at Exane BNP Paribas and Dutch AEK expect Unibail Rodamco to cut its 2007-2012 growth target to 6 percent and 7 percent, respectively, due to the economic downturn.
"Eventually, shop sales will fall. With lower sales there will be renegotiations of rents. This will have a significant impact on earnings," said Theodoor Gilissen analyst Floris Berghuis, who also expects a lower mid-term target.
The economic slowdown would also impact Unibail-Rodamco's project portfolio and asset values, analysts said, but the company could cope with it because it had a relatively low debt ratio of 28 percent of assets.
British Land and Dutch rival Corio have already cancelled or postponed development projects, citing higher financing costs or lower occupier demand.
Petercam analyst Stephan van Weeren expects the total portfolio, which is 72 percent invested in retail property, to decline 66 million euros in value in 2008 and 649 million euros this year, he said in a note.
Analyst Berghuis also said a small value decline was possible for 2008 and he was looking for the outlook for this year.
"It remains a question to what extent the current discount to the share prices is justified. The stock is far below the company's net asset value," Berghuis said.
The stock closed 1.3 percent higher on Wednesday at 105.62 euros, compared to a fully diluted liquidation net asset value of 172 euros at the end of June.
Analysts are also looking for signs Unibail-Rodamco may make new acquisitions as a result of price falls in Europe, after spending 1 billion euros ($1.3 billion) last year on Spanish and Austrian shopping centres and selling 741 million euros worth of Dutch retail assets.
Unibail-Rodamco trades at 12.3 times expected 2008 earnings per share, compared to 10.6 for Corio, 8.5 for Land Securities and 8 for French rival Klepierre.
Below is a table of analysts' estimates:
AVERAGE MEDIAN RANGE PREVIOUS FORECASTS Recurring EPS 8.47 8.43 8.39-8.62 7.86 5 Proposed 2008 Dividend 7.33 7.50 7.00-7.50 7.00 3
NOTES:
Figures are in euros, except for number of forecasts.
EPS: Earnings Per Share ($1=.7672 Euro) (Editing by Simon Jessop)