MILAN, July 24 (Reuters) - Eni's dividend policy will be under scrutiny along with second quarter results on Thursday as divestment risks have heightened concerns over the Italian oil group's balance sheet, analysts said.
On Tuesday, Eni affiliate Snam Rete Gas said GDF Suez would not go ahead with plans to buy Rome gas grid Romana Gas, valued at around 1.1 billion euros, placing a question mark over the sale of the asset.
"Our 'sell' rating on Eni is based on our view that the group's balance sheet is stretched and that as such it will be difficult for the company to deliver both growth and a meaningful yield at the same time," Societe Generale said in a note dated July 22.
The broker added that GDF Suez pulling out of the Romana Gas deal has put the issue firmly back on the agenda.
Eni, which fully consolidates Snam's results, sought to sell the grid to GDF Suez as part of a 2008 deal to acquire Belgian gas company Distrigas.
"GDF Suez's decision to pull out ... is likely, in our view, to resurrect concerns over Eni's dividend," Barclays Capital said in a note on Thursday.
However the broker said dividend concerns were overdone and forecast the group would pay a flat dividend on the year of 1.3 euros even if the divestment does not occur.
The broker said a failed divestment of Romana Gas would directly impact Eni's gearing by about 2 percentage points to bring it to 37 percent by year-end, adding it expects an interim dividend of 0.65 euros per share.
A Reuters consensus of nine analysts, which sees Eni's adjusted second-quarter net profit at an average of 938 million euros ($1.33 billion), pegged the interim dividend for 2009 at 0.65 euros per share, in line with the previous year.
But Barclays noted the European dividend swap option market is pricing Eni's 2009 dividend at 1.0 euros per share, which could suggest an interim dividend of just 0.35-0.45.
"A lot depends on the oil price," a Milan analyst said.
"A priority for Eni is to maintain a strong credit rating. The Romana Gas development raises a question. A lot depends on how far they want to stick to their target of a debt-to-equity gearing of below 0.40," he said.
In its statement on Tuesday, Snam Rete Gas said it reserves the right to take measures to protect its interests with regard to the Romana Gas deal.
Eni's dividend policy is based on a relative yield. Management has said the 2009 dividend will offer a superior yield defined as the highest or second highest of the oil majors.
Eni will present second-quarter and first-half results on Thursday, followed by a conference call with management.
(Reporting by Stephen Jewkes; editing by John Stonestreet)
($1=.7043 Euro)