Get 40% Off
🚨 Volatile Markets? Find Hidden Gems for Serious Outperformance
Find Stocks Now

FOREX-Widening rate gap drives yen down, Aussie at 29-yr peak

Published 03/30/2011, 01:49 AM
Updated 03/30/2011, 01:52 AM

* Yen hits 10-month low vs euro, near 3-week trough vs dlr

* Yield differentials, potential hedge unwinding weigh on yen

* Australian dollar hits 29-year high vs dollar

By Natsuko Waki

TOKYO, March 30 (Reuters) - The yen fell broadly on Wednesday, hitting 10-month lows against the euro and touching its lowest level in nearly three weeks versus the dollar as interest rate differentials widened in favour of U.S. and European currencies.

Hawkish comments by Federal Reserve and European Central Bank officials contrasted with the stance taken by the Bank of Japan, which is set to leave interest rates near zero for some time to support the world's third-largest economy as it recovers from the effects of the March 11 earthquake.

Speculation that Japanese investors may reduce dollar hedging positions related to their overseas investment and the absence of huge repatriation flows following the quake are shifting the focus back to economic fundamentals, which are reinforcing the yen's status as a funding currency.

"We've had comments from the Fed and a shift in sentiment towards the U.S. policy from a rate perspective that has really pushed U.S.-Japan yield differentials, driving the dollar higher," said Mitul Kotecha, head of global FX strategy at Credit Agricole in Hong Kong.

"The fiscal year-end isn't a story any more. The market is coming round to the view we're not going to see the scale of repatriation once expected."

3rd party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Investing.com. See disclosure here or remove ads .

The dollar rose 0.6 percent on the day to a three-week peak of 83.02 , having breached its 50-day moving average of 82.10. The next resistance level is seen at 83.30, the March 11 high.

The move gathered pace when Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher told Fox Business he would vote against any further monetary easing after the current $600 billion bond buying programme ends in June. [ID:nN2984973]

The greenback is now above an 82.00 yen high marked on March 18, when Japanese authorities and other G7 central banks worked in concert to stop runaway yen gains. This level will now act as support.

A Japanese brokerage trader said there is a possibility Japanese investors could reduce their hedges if they turn negative on the yen's medium-term outlook, a factor that could push the dollar towards 90-100 yen.

Some analysts also said there is a risk that Japan's trade deficit could shrink, reducing natural upward pressure on the yen, as exports are likely to fall in the aftermath of the quake and energy and resource-related imports could rise.

The dollar is up nearly 9 percent against the yen since hitting a record low of 76.25 yen on March 17.

YIELD BACK IN FOCUS

Wednesday's move came as the two-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to near six-week highs around 0.83 percent after St. Louis Fed chief James Bullard urged the U.S. central bank to begin reversing its campaign of monetary easing.

3rd party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Investing.com. See disclosure here or remove ads .

Bullard, who does not have a vote on Fed policy this year, said the Fed could trim its $600 billion bond-buying programme by $100 billion. [ID:nPRC003447]

"Non-voting, regional Fed presidents might rarely have been so important ... so long as they say what the market wants to hear," David Watt, a strategist at RBC, wrote in a client note.

The euro rose to 116.95 yen after breaking through major resistance around 115.50/60, a level that has capped the pair since May 2010.

The single currency has been driven by expectations that the ECB, worried about inflation, may raise rates in April.

That view was supported by ECB Governing Council member Jozef Makuch, who said on Tuesday the ECB was "highly" likely to raise its main interest rate from the current record low level of 1.0 percent next month. [ID:nFLATEE7LX]

ECB Executive Board member Juergen Stark was also quoted as saying the ECB should not delay raising interest rates. [ID:nFLATEE7LY]

Wednesday's data is expected to show euro zone inflation above the ECB's target of "close to but below" 2 percent.

Three-month euro interbank lending rates rose as high as 1.219 percent , the highest since June 2009.

The euro was down a quarter percent at $1.4078 while the dollar index rose 0.1 percent against a basket of major currencies, although it stayed well off last week's 15-month lows of 75.340.

Elsewhere, the Australian dollar rose to a fresh 29-year peak of $1.0334 . It hit highs not seen since early 1982, when it was a managed currency.

3rd party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Investing.com. See disclosure here or remove ads .

Traders cited a confluence of supportive factors including persistent talk of M&A flows, solid demand for higher-yielding currencies and lofty commodity prices. Against the yen, it popped above 85 for the first time since May 2010. (Additional reporting by Ian Chua and Masayuki Kitano; Editing by Joseph Radford)

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.