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FOREX-Euro may lose drive after expected ECB rate hike

Published 07/07/2011, 02:17 AM
Updated 07/07/2011, 02:20 AM
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* Euro outlook bleak despite widely expected ECB hike

* Dollar benefits from renewed euro pressure

* Aussie jumps after firm jobs data

* Commodity currencies resilient even after China rate rise

By Hideyuki Sano and Ian Chua

TOKYO/SYDNEY, July 7 (Reuters) - The euro stabilised in Asia on Thursday but remained vulnerable as worries about Europe's sovereign debt problems could take centre stage again after a widely expected interest rate hike by the European Central Bank later in the day.

Concern that Greece's debt crisis would spread to other highly indebted peripheral euro zone countries flared up this week after Moody's slashed its rating for Portugal to junk status.

"Ireland could get downgraded to junk status too, which would hurt the euro. Countries like Spain and Italy have relatively high ratings despite rises in their bond yields and they could face more downgrades," said Kimihiko Tomita, forex manager at State Street.

Yield spreads on Italian bonds over German bunds have soared in recent weeks and many traders say the euro's potential downside will look bigger if the ECB raises rates on Thursday.

"Now with euro peripheral contagion back in rage, the ECB meeting is almost relegated to the status of a sideshow ... the potential for Mr Trichet to do or say anything that will immediately propel the euro significantly higher is considerably diminished," BNP Paribas analysts wrote in a note.

In fact, if anything, a softening in ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet's hawkish stance, or even a lack of more hawkish comments, could further weigh on the euro, traders said.

"If Trichet's comments just underline expectations of gradual tightening in the future, the market may be disappointed and sell the euro, said Katsunori Kitakura, chief dealer at Chuo Mitsui Trust Bank.

The euro was last at $1.4335 , having plumbed a trough around $1.4286 overnight. Support is seen at the session low, a level representing a 61.8 percent retracement of a June 27 to July 4 rally.

A break of that could see the single currency return to $1.4213, the 76.4 percent level. A breach of its upward sloping trendline support since late May, now at around $1.4175, could add to bearish sentiment.

Still, analysts don't expect the euro to fall too sharply in the months ahead, underpinned by higher interest rates, a Reuters poll showed.

Analysts in the survey see the euro at $1.3900 in a year's time. See for the latest Reuters forex poll.

Against the safe-haven Swiss franc , the euro reached a low around 1.1958 francs on Wednesday before recovering a bit to last stand at 1.2029. It was, however, not far off a record low near 1.1800 set recently.

The dollar benefited from the euro's woes, rising against a basket of major currencies. The dollar index climbed to around 75.000, pulling further away from a one-month low of 74.133 set earlier in the week.

Against the yen, it was at 80.97 , staying in a well-worn range roughly between 79.80 and 81.30.

Commodity currencies fared surprisingly well in the face of renewed pressure on the euro and China's interest rate hike.

TIGHTENING CYCLE

China raised rates for the third time this year, but analysts suggested it was close to, or even at the end, of its tightening cycle. There was also some optimism that it would not be threatened by a hard landing.

"While the euro is suffering on the back of such negative news flow, unlike the 2010 episodes of euro zone debt woes, the risk aversion impact appears to be getting increasingly narrow," noted Frank Peter, strategist at Societe Generale.

"Interestingly, even with the announcement of another China policy rate hike, USD, JPY and CHF gains against the commodity bloc currencies were marginal or non-existent," he added.

Indeed, the Australian dollar recovered from a dip to one-week lows around $1.0655 to last stand near $1.0730, while the New Zealand currency at $0.8262, was not far off a 30-year peak of $0.8332 set earlier this week.

The Aussie extended its gains further after data showed Australian employment rose by more than expected in June. (Additional reporting by Chikafumi Hodo, Reuters FX analysts Krishna Kumar in Sydney and Rick Lloyd in Singapore)

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