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FOREX-Euro gives up modest gains, USD risks FOMC selling

Published 05/18/2011, 08:32 AM
Updated 05/18/2011, 08:40 AM
SEBF
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* Euro retreats, faces tech resistance

* Euro upside capped by Greek debt issues

* Analysts see risk of dollar selling on FOMC minutes

(Updates levels)

By Naomi Tajitsu

LONDON, May 18 (Reuters) - The euro fell against the dollar on Wednesday after early demand ran into technical resistance but the shared currency may catch fresh bids if Federal Reserve meeting minutes suggest U.S. interest rates will stay low.

The euro traded at $1.4220, down 0.1 percent on the day, with intra-day stops below $1.4210. Traders said early sovereign demand took it to a session high of $1.4287, but gains were blocked by its 55-day moving average around $1.4290.

Higher shares and commodity prices offered some support to riskier currencies including the euro, while the dollar was on the back foot as lower U.S. Treasury yields tarnished the appeal of U.S. assets ahead of FOMC minutes due later in the day.

The market took in its stride the risk of a Greek debt restructuring after European finance officials on Tuesday acknowledged such a possibility. [ID:nLDE74G0PD]

Some analysts argued that while investors remain deeply concerned about Athens' creditworthiness, overall speculation about an end-game to Greece's debt situation was limited for the moment.

Range trading in the euro suggested the market was wary of taking a strong direction on the latest development in the euro zone debt crisis at present, while analysts saw the risk of more dollar downside.

"The possibility of a more dovish tone in the FOMC minutes as well as European inflation figures over the coming days could well see confidence in pursuing euro strength above $1.43," said Lena Komileva, global head of G10 currency strategy at BBH.

Eurogroup leader Jean-Claude Juncker on Tuesday said there was a need to move towards a "soft restructuring" of Greek debt, but other officials are fighting any such move, while Greece's prime minister has said restructuring would do more harm than good.

Some analysts argued that a restructuring would be unlikely at least until European officials were confident the contagion risks to other weak euro zone countries would be low, adding that this outlook may prop up the euro.

Still, many concede the euro will be unable to gain significantly until investors have more clarity on how successful Greece, along with Portugal and Ireland, will be in sorting out its debt problems.

"If Greece is allowed to restructure in one way or another, it could be taken as a negative for the euro as it could undermine confidence in the euro zone," said Dag Muller, strategist at SEB in Stockholm.

Market participants said the euro's immediate downside was protected by the 21-hour moving average around $1.4244.

The dollar slipped 0.4 percent to 81.12 yen, as the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hovered around its lowest in five months. Narrowing U.S./Japanese government bond yield spreads often put selling pressure on the dollar versus the yen.

DOLLAR SLIPS

The dollar index <.DXY> was up 0.04 percent at 75.428, but well below a six-week high around 76.0 hit earlier in the week.

The U.S. central bank releases minutes from its May policy meeting at 1800 GMT.

Investors expect the Fed to underline its determination to keep rates near zero even after it ends its cheap-money policy of quantitative easing in June, and an even more dovish stance could prompt selling in the dollar.

U.S. fiscal wrangling is also expected to limit demand for the dollar, which has bounced following a heavy selling trend this month, as investors trimmed overstretched bets to sell the greenback.

"Doubts over the extent to which the recent USD rally washed out extreme short positioning warns against expectations for USD to return sharply lower, but we suspect that the USD Index will head below 75.0 before long," ING analysts said in a note.

The Australian dollar slipped 0.4 percent to $1.0581 , struggling in the aftermath of weak wage data which further reduced the case for a rate rise next month. (Editing by Stephen Nisbet/Ruth Pitchford)

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