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Forex - USD/CAD weekly outlook: July 11 - 15

Published 07/10/2011, 07:22 AM
USD/CAD
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Investing.com – The Canadian dollar closed lower against its U.S. counterpart last week, pulling back from a two-month high amid renewed concerns that the U.S. economic recovery is faltering and fears the sovereign debt crisis in the euro zone will spread.

USD/CAD hit 0.9562 on Friday, the pair’s lowest since May 11; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.9631 by close of trade on Friday, rising 0.39% over the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.9562, Friday’s low and resistance at 0.9694, the high of July 6.

The Department of Labor said U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by just 18,000 in June, far below the 89,000 increase forecast by economists, with employers hiring the fewest workers in nine months, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose 0.1% to 9.2%, the highest level this year.

Meanwhile, fears over sovereign debt contagion in the euro zone were reignited after shares in Italian bank UniCredit SpA were briefly suspended on Friday.

The move saw the cost of insuring Italian debt against default rise sharply, while the cost of insuring Portuguese, Irish and Greek government debt against default surged to record highs.

Earlier in the week, ratings agency Moody's downgraded Portugal's credit rating to junk status, saying there was growing risk the country will need a second round of official financing before it can return to capital markets.

The Canadian dollar rose 0.71% against the greenback on Thursday, as crude oil posted sharp gains after two better-than-expected U.S. employment readings boosted expectations for a strong payrolls report on Friday.

Raw materials, including oil account for about half of Canada’s export revenue.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking towards official data on retail sales and consumer prices to gauge the strength of the U.S. economic recovery, while Canada is to release data on business outlook.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, July 11


Canada is to publish official data on housing starts, while the Bank of Canada is to publish a report on business outlook, a leading indicator of economic health.

Tuesday, July 12

Both the U.S. and Canada are to publish official data on their trade balance, the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the month.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is to publish the minutes of the June policy-setting meeting. The minutes give investors a detailed insight into the economic and financial conditions that influenced the interest rate decision.

Wednesday, July 13

The U.S. is to publish official data on import prices and crude oil inventories, which can be a big market mover for the Canadian dollar due to the size of Canada’s energy sector.

The U.S. is also to publish a report on the federal budget balance, while Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is to give testimony on monetary policy before lawmakers in Washington.

Thursday, July 14

The U.S. is to release a string of economic data, beginning with a report on retail sales, the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

The country is also to release official data on producer price inflation, a leading indicator of consumer inflation, as well as weekly government data on initial jobless claims. Also Thursday, Fed Chair Ben Bernanke is to deliver the second part of his testimony on monetary policy in Washington.

Friday, July 15


Canada is to release government data on manufacturing sales, a leading indicator of economic health.

The U.S. is to round up the week with a flurry of economic data, with reports on consumer price inflation, which accounts for a majority of overall inflation. In addition, the U.S. is to publish a report on manufacturing activity in New York state, as well as government data on industrial production and the capacity utilization rate. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan is to publish preliminary data on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.

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