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Forex - NZD/USD weekly outlook: September 22 - 26

Published 09/21/2014, 09:46 AM
Updated 09/21/2014, 09:46 AM
NZD/USD ends the week down 0.38% on U.S. rate hike outlook

Investing.com - The New Zealand dollar ended Friday's session close to a seven-month low against its U.S. counterpart, after the Federal Reserve brought forward its outlook for rising interest rates.

NZD/USD hit 0.8076 on Thursday, the pair’s lowest since February 4, before subsequently consolidating at 0.8121 by close of trade on Friday, down 0.39% for the day and 0.38% lower for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.8076, the low from September 18, and resistance at 0.8203, the high from September 17.

The Federal Reserve cut its monthly bond-buying program by another $10 billion following its two-day policy meeting on September 17, keeping the program on track to finish next month.

While the Fed reiterated that it expects rates to remain on hold for a "considerable time" after its quantitative easing program ends, it also projected a faster pace of rate hikes.

For the end of 2015, the median forecast was 1.375% compared to a June forecast of 1.125%.

Speaking at the central bank’s post-policy meeting press conference, Fed Chair Janet Yellen emphasized that the timing of the first rate hike would be data-dependent.

Meanwhile, in New Zealand, official data released Thursday showed that the economy grew by 0.7% in the second quarter, above expectations for 0.6% growth.

Year-on-year, New Zealand's gross domestic product increased by 3.9% in the last quarter, marking the fastest growth rate since the second quarter of 2004.

Data from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission released Friday showed that speculators decreased their bullish bets on the New Zealand dollar in the week ending September 16.

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Net longs totaled 1,120 contracts, down from net longs of 9,522 in the preceding week.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on U.S. data on new and existing home sales, as well as reports on durable goods orders and initial jobless claims.

A recent batch of upbeat U.S. economic data underlined optimism over the strength of the economy and fuelled expectations that the Fed will begin to raise rates sooner than previously thought.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Wednesday as there are no relevant events on this day.

Monday, September 22

New Zealand is to release private sector data on consumer sentiment.

The U.S. is to release private sector data on existing home sales.

Wednesday, September 24

New Zealand is to release data on the trade balance, the difference in value between imports and exports.

The U.S. is to publish data on new home sales.

Thursday, September 25

The U.S. is to release reports on durable goods orders and initial jobless claims.

Friday, September 26

The U.S. is to release revised data on gross domestic product, the broadest indicator of economic activity and the leading measure of the economy’s health. The U.S. is also to release revised data on consumer sentiment.

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