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EMERGING MARKETS-Stocks at nr-14-mth high; bond appetite firm

Published 10/14/2009, 07:36 AM
Updated 10/14/2009, 07:39 AM
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* Emerging stocks at near 14-mth highs

* Romania postpones bond; Sri Lanka bond book at $2 bln

* Thai stocks fall; risk insurance costs rise

By Sujata Rao

LONDON, Oct 14 (Reuters) - A plummeting U.S. dollar and strong appetite for yield kept emerging assets on the boil on Wednesday with stocks rising for the eighth straight session to near-14-month highs and most currencies at multi-month peaks.

There were some worries on the radar -- Latvian's continuing currency jitters, Romania's political crisis as well as a market sell-off in Thailand -- but overall sentiment was buoyant as testified by Colombian and Brazilian bond sales on Tuesday, the former being the country's longest-ever maturity issue.

Better-than-expected Chinese trade data along with expectations U.S. interest rates will remain low for some time to come have reinforced belief in the global growth story while corporate third-quarter earnings have got off to a good start.

The dollar remains at a 14-month low against a basket of currencies, intensifying the dash to higher-yield assets.

"Markets are mainly stronger in Asia, and that has carried on into European markets this morning," said Wike Groenenberg, head of emerging markets strategy at Citi in London. "There is some optimism that the second quarter U.S. earnings figures are going to be good."

Chipmaker Intel Corp kicked off the season with forecast-beating results and outlook, helping world stocks higher and pushing emerging equities 1.75 percent higher <.MSCIEF> to the highest in nearly 14 months.

Investment bank JP Morgan also reported results well above than expectations.

Equity markets in central Europe posted strong gains, with Budapest <.BUX> and Warsaw <.WIG20> up 2 percent. Bucharest was impervious to the government's collapse to gain 2.7 percent <.BETI> and Moscow jumped 3 percent <.IRTS>.

Currencies were mostly strong, with the zloty up 0.5 percent to a one-week high versus the euro on expectations the central bank will stay put on rates and may raise them as soon as mid-2010. Privatisations are expected to net 37 billion zlotys by end-2010 though doubts have emerged over the fate of a 67 percent stake sale in utility Enea .

Societe Generale said it had opened a long zloty position with a target of 4 per euro.

"We expect euro/zloty to move towards the lower end of its range in the coming weeks, supported by continued positive market sentiment and pressure from domestic issues abating," the bank said noting recent uncertainty on dividend outflows had eased.

Hungary's forint gained 0.6 percent despite below-forecast inflation that portends a 50 bps rate cut next Monday.

The lira and rand firmed over 1 percent to the dollar to 12-month and 15-month peaks respectively .

But the Romanian leu and Latvian lat stayed weak, with the latter hovering around the weak end of its pegged band as markets awaited decisions on the size of cuts to the budget. The lat is close to the 0.7098 rate at which the central bank steps in to help the currency.

The leu is dogged by the collapse of Romania's government though traders said the market was quiet on Wednesday.

"We saw the central bank come in yesterday and basically send a message that it will hold 4.30 (per euro)," a trader in London said. "It's just lagging everything else in the region which have been lifted by strong equity markets."

Romania got a warning from Moody's which said ratings could come under pressure if political instability hit implementation of reforms linked to a 20-billion euro aid package from the IMF and the European Union.

The country has been forced to postpone its planned Eurobond of up to 1.5 billion euros [ID: nBUC003511].

However appetite for emerging market bonds remains strong and Croatia mandated banks to manage a benchmark dollar bond [ID: nLE177635]. Sri Lanka meanwhile saw books for its planned January 2015 bond swell to $2 billion [nLE216116].

Emerging sovereign bonds strengthened, with the JP Morgan EMBI Plus index tightening 13 bps <11EMJ> and outperforming U.S. Treasuries to touch 14-month lows.

The market's weakest point on Wednesday was Thailand which saw stocks fall 4 percent to two-week lows <.SETI> and the currency dip on concerns over the health of the country's king.

The cost of insuring Thai risk via credit default swaps rose. Five-year CDS were up to 89.8 bps, 5 bps higher than Tuesday and compared with an 82.8 bps close on Monday. For more on Thailand click on [ID:nBKK105974]. (Additional reporting by Carolyn Cohn; Editing by Andy Bruce)

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