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UPDATE 3-Heineken ups 2009 forecast despite selling less beer

Published 10/28/2009, 11:55 AM
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(Corrects final three paragraphs to show Heineken is reported to be in discussions with FEMSA, not that Heineken has made an offer for FEMSA)

* Raises 2009 profit forecast to "mid double-digit" growth

* Global recession still driving lower beer volumes

* Cost cuts, strong pricing helping profitability

(Adds analyst, SABMiller, shares)

By Reed Stevenson

AMSTERDAM, Oct 28 (Reuters) - Heineken NV sold less beer in the third quarter as drinkers opted for cheaper alternatives but it still chose to cut costs rather than reduce its prices to raise its 2009 profit forecast.

The world's third-largest brewer is more exposed to sluggish western Europe and the premium market, compared with bigger rivals such as SABMiller and Anheuser-Busch InBev, which have broader reaches that extend into emerging regions.

SABMiller, which earns nearly 90 percent of its profits from such emerging markets as South Africa, Colombia, Poland and China, said on Tuesday that it was investing $370 million in plant and equipment in Africa for further growth there.

"This company (Heineken) has been missing some emerging markets," said Petercam analyst Kris Kippers. "The focus on premium beer is a good strategy in the long term, but in this environment it is hurting."

Heineken, whose chief brands are Heineken and Amstel, Europe's No.1 and No.3, said beer sales volume in Europe, Asia and the Americas continued to be under pressure from a weaker global economy and that consumers were switching to cheaper private label beer brands -- a market where Heineken does not compete.

However, Heineken Chief Financial Officer Rene Hooft Graafland said in a conference call that it would stick to its bet of focusing on the premium beer market.

"The premium-isation trend continues," he said.

Volumes fell by 4.7 percent on a like-for-like basis in the July-September period from a year earlier. Analysts had expected a 5.4 percent decline after falls of 6.3 and 6.7 percent in the first two quarters.

Shares in were mostly flat in Amsterdam, trading down 0.5 percent at 29.85 euros at 0900 GMT. The shares are up 37 percent from a year earlier.

Third-quarter revenue was down 0.4 percent on a like-for-like basis and totalled 4.07 billion euros ($6 billion), helped by higher pricing. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected, on average, revenue of 4.12 billion euros.

Still, Heineken said it was able to squeeze out growth in earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) in the "mid-teens" despite the lower volume, which in turn will help the brewer post a net profit increase in 2009 in the "low double digits" versus the previous forecast for high single digit growth.

Heineken said that as part of its cost-cutting programme it had closed breweries in France and Spain, and would close another four breweries and three malting plants. The closures and other cost cuts will result in a charge of 130 million to 150 million euros for 2009.

Mexican brewer and bottler FEMSA will report earnings later on Wednesday. The Financial Times reported earlier this week that Heineken is in discussions for the group's beer business, Mexico's No.2 brewer and maker of Dos Equis and Tecate, which is up for sale.

Heineken distributes FEMSA beers in the United States, but would likely be beaten by SABMiller for the $7.5 billion plus brewing operation.

Heineken is busy reducing debts after the S&N purchase and may have a limited ability to issue shares with the Heineken family in control. (Editing by Karen Foster) ($1=.6718 euros)

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