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UPDATE 1-Russia jobless rate falls to 6-mth low in June

Published 07/17/2009, 08:46 AM
Updated 07/17/2009, 09:08 AM
DANSKE
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* 200,000 Russians find jobs in June

* Key indicators improve m/m

* Y/Y falls remain steep

(Adds details, background, FSS data)

MOSCOW, July 17 (Reuters) - Russia's jobless rate fell to a six-month low of 8.3 percent in June, a source at the Ministry of Industry told Reuters on Friday, in a further sign the country has passed the worst point of its first recession in a decade

Russia has been hit by the slump in commodity prices, falling world demand, investor flight from emerging markets and the global credit crunch which has left companies struggling to refinance debt amassed during years of oil-fuelled boom.

But the last two months have brought signs of early green shoots, with officials hoping the bottom of the crisis is past.

Some 200,000 Russians found jobs in June, taking unemployment down to 6.3 million, the ministry source said, adding that capital investment, real wages and real disposable incomes all rose on the month.

Separately data from the Federal Statistics Service showed that wage arrears hit a five-month low of 7.2 billion roubles ($227 million) in June, while the number of people lined up for redundancy in the next month fell 16.3 percent compared to May.

The unemployment figures, however, have been improved by the FSS carrying out a review of the Russian population earlier this month, revising down the size of the labour force and thus the number of people actively looking for work.

As a result, it revised down May unemployment to 8.5 percent or 6.5 million people from a previously reported 9.9 percent or 7.5 million people. The revised data also shows unemployment peaking in February rather than April, as before.

The June numbers revealed by ministry source were not all rosy -- a 6.5 percent year-on-year slump in retail sales is the biggest in nearly 10 years, and is deeper than analysts' expectations for a 6.2 percent contraction. [ID:nRUPOLL2]

"The recovery is underway, but we think it will be very gradual. There are still quite large risks in the Russian economy, so the outlook is still quite fragile," said Lars Rasmussen, analyst at Danske Bank. "Russian consumers are really struggling and they are likely to do so for the remainder of the year."

A 20.1 percent year-on-year fall in capital investment was an improvement on May and broadly in line with expectations.

But it was still the second worst showing for the indicator since the series began in 1999, illustrating that the path to recovery for the Russian economy will be long and slow.

The FSS is due to release the data on unemployment, retail sales, capital investment and wages next week. (Reporting by Maria Plis, writing by Toni Vorobyova; Editing by Toby Chopra)

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