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UPDATE 1-Carlsberg shares fall on Russia beer tax plan

Published 09/24/2009, 08:56 AM
Updated 09/24/2009, 08:57 AM
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* Russia tax plan hits Carlsberg shares

* Shares fall 4.5 percent

* Company says awaiting full details (Recasts with further details, updates shares)

COPENHAGEN, Sept 24 (Reuters) - Shares in Danish brewer Carlsberg dropped more than 3 percent on Thursday after the Russian government proposed to triple excise tax by 2012 in the Copenhagen group's biggest beer market.

The world's fourth biggest brewer, which owns Russia's Baltika, earns nearly half its profits from Russia where it is by far the largest brewer, but analysts said the impact the measure would have on beer sales was unclear.

"The increase in duty would....increase the retail price by 14 percent assuming that it was fully passed on to the consumer," said analyst Andy Ford at broker Cazenove.

Carlsberg shares fell as much as 4.5 percent to a one-week low of 375.50 crowns, but pared losses to trade 2.8 percent lower at 383.25 by 1210 GMT. The stock underperformed the Copenhagen bourse's bluechip index, which fell 1.25 percent, and was the weakest performer in a DJ Stoxx food and beverage index that fell 0.6 percent.

The Russian government approved a 2010 budget late on Wednesday that includes a plan to triple the excise duty on beer from the current 3 roubles, to bring in an extra 65.1 billion roubles ($2.2 billion) of revenues next year.

Carlsberg said it was still waiting for information on the final proposal to be sent to Russia's parliament, the Duma.

"We have not got any information on what proposal this will end up with, (and) which the finance minister will put forward so we have no comment," said spokesman Jens Peter Skaarup.

Carlsberg has a 40 percent market share in the world's third biggest beer market after China and the United States in early 2009, with Anheuser-Busch InBev on 18 percent, Heineken 16 percent, and SABMiller 5 percent.

AB InBev shares were up 0.2 percent, Heineken 0.4 percent ahead while SABMiller was off 0.1 percent.

The Russian plan calls for the duty on beer to move to 9 roubles in 2010 from 3 roubles, with a half litre of beer typically costing in shops between 20 and 50 roubles.

The budget will be submitted to the Russian Duma on Oct. 1.

"Proposals to increase the level of duty on beer have been made in the past, only to be watered down as they passed through the political process," Cazenove's Ford said.

The head of the Russian brewers' association told Reuters in the summer such a rise in duties could halve beer sales, but some analysts said the proposed increase was less onerous than expected and would have much more modest impact on beer sales.

"News on changes in Russian beer tax is less onerous than feared....we estimate that in 2010 this will increase the retail price of an average beer by 3.4 percent," said analyst Simon Hales at Evolution Securities. (Additional reporting by Toni Vorobyova in Moscow, David Jones in London and Peter Levring in Copenhagen) (Reporting by John Acher; editing by John Stonestreet and Louise Heavens)

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